Stat of the Day, 12th May 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.05 Catterick : Capla Dancer @ 5/2 BOG non-runner

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.40 Ripon...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Emperor11/2 BOG

Why?

A 5 year old gelding who won two starts ago before running a very creditable fourth of 21 in a big field Class 2 handicap last time out almost six weeks ago.

In his defence, he was only beaten by less than two lengths on unsuitably soft ground, a feeling backed up by his record of 2 wins and a place from 5 runs on good to firm ground like he faces today. This return to favoured ground allied to a drop in class should see him in a better light today.

As well as the above, he's of interest to me, because he's a system qualifier of one of my many micro-systems I have stored over recent years and it's I call "1-2/3/4", because it revolves around horses who won two starts ago (the 1) and were then 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out (ie 2/3/4).

There are of course other parameters to consider, but those last two placings are the base of the study.

The angle I like to go at with these horses is as follows...

...April to September / Flat (turf) / Age 3 to 5 / last run 21-90 days ago / beaten by no more than 5 lengths last time out...

Such horses are 524/2827 (18.5% SR) for 749pts (+26.5% ROI) since the start of the 2010 season, so it's a considerable data sample and one worth logging down as a part of a portfolio. And with today's race in mind, those 2827 runners include...

  • on good to firm ground : 213/1069 (19.9%) for 325.5pts (+30.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 64/393 (16.3%) for 223.1pts (+56.8%)
  • and at Class 3 : 88/382 (23%) for 264.5pts (+69.2%)

...providing...a 1pt win bet on Swift Emperor11/2 BOG which was on offer by both Betfair Sports and Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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