Stat of the Day, 12th May 2016

Wednesday's Result :

1.50 Lingfield: Marshgate Lane @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Headway on outer to track leaders 8f out, chased leader 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 2.5 lengths).

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.45 Newmarket

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Indira at 9/2 BOG.

Why?

Since the start of the 2008 campaign, John Berry's UK Flat handicappers have won 31 of their 215 (14.4% SR) races generating level stakes profits of 48.4pts (+22.5% ROI) along the way. Blindly profitable trainers are always of interest and those runners can be further analysed, with this contest in mind, as follows...

  • Class 4/5 runners are 22/139 (15.8% SR) for 62.3pts (+44.8% ROI)
  • those priced at 5/2 to 11/1 are 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 88.6pts (+75.1% ROI)
  • those racing in the narrow 11.5 to 12.5 furlong range are 12/50 (24% SR) for 85pts (+170% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+101.4% ROI)
  • whilst those ridden by the highly promising/talented Josephine Gordon are 2 from 2 for 17pts profit!

And a small John Berry flat handicap micro? OK, since 2010, races of 1m to 1m4.5f, 9/1 maximum price, top 3 finish LTO = 12/29 (41.4% SR) for 60.9pts (+209.9% ROI) with Miss Gordon riding 2 from 2 for those 17pts again.

All the above facts and figures are pertinent to Indira today, of course and this 5 yr old mare was last seen winning by 2.25 lengths over 1m4.5f at Chester coming from stall 9 (yes, nine!) under today's jockey who was claiming 3lbs off a mark of 83.

That mark is unaltered, with no penalty accrued from winning an Apprentices' handicap and the fact the jockey now claims 5lbs should make the task a little easier. Furthermore, the mare has finsihed 1211 in her last four outings, all partnered by Josephine Gordon and the pair are 2 from 2 together on turf, where Indira has an impressive enough career record, winning 4 of 14 times, with the following points of note...

  • she has never been out of the first two home in three runs on good to firm ground, finishing 122 in the process
  • she's 4/10 at 11.5 to 12.5 furlongs and also 4 from 10 in races at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • she's 3 from 15 running within 15 days of her last effort and has won 2 of 4 contests in this grade
  • whilst her record in May stands at 2 wins from 3.

Indira isn't the only one who seems to like the month of May, jockey Josephine Gordon is having a superb time of it so far, winning 5 times and making the frame on 3 further occasions from her 15 rides in the past 11 days. Backing all 15 would have netted you a cool 24.5pts so far and she's 4/12 for 21.3pts on turf.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Indira at 9/2 BOG with Coral, who were the standout price at 6.40pm, but to see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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