Stat of the Day, 12th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2015

We went from the sublime of Richard Hughes' ride on Wednesday to the ridiculous of Yeeoow's disappointing performance at Nottingham on Thursday.

He set off well enough and was prominent in the early stages but faded to the extent that he was the last of the 7 runners to finish, well beaten by 14 lengths.

I'll be hoping/expecting for better on Friday in the...

3.25 Newton Abbot:

A Class 3, 5-runner handicap chase over 2m 5f on good ground where the call is a 5/2 BOG bet on Brody Bleu.

This horse has won 6 chases and a point to point over trips of 2m3f to 2m6f on a variety on ground conditions ranging from Good to Soft all the way through to Good to Firm. He was a 5/2 winner at Exeter last time out and is only rated 2lbs higher than his last win, which was his fourth in eight starts this year.

He's trained by Robert Walford, who has tasted quite a bit of success in his relatively short training career so far. In NH handicaps since the start of 2013, he has saddled up 21 winners from 96 runners (21.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 19pts at an ROI of 19.8% ROI, of which he's 2/5 for 5.75pts here at Newton Abbot.

Robert's handicap chasers are 16/46 (34.8% SR) for 22.8pts (+49.7% ROI), with his Class 3/4 runners winning 15 of 43 (34.9% SR) for 22.3pts (+51.9% ROI). Those who won last time out won again on 7 of 11 (63.6% SR) occasions for 12.75pts (+115.9% ROI).

The Walford class 3/4 handicap chasers priced at 4/6 to 8/1 are 15/36 (41.7% SR) for 29.3pts (+81.3% ROI) with LTO winners winning again 7 out of 10 times for 13.74pts profits.

Brody Bleu is in scintillating form at present finishing 23231111 this year, winning each of his last four outings. He's 6/16 over fences and conditions look ideal for him here today, as he's...

  • 4/8 on good ground
  • 5/13 under Felix de Giles
  • 2/3 at this grade
  • 1/1 here at Newton Abbot
  • 6/13 in races of 5 to 8 runners

With those conditions in place and his recent form allied to his trainer's overall record, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brody Bleu complete a 5-timer in the space of 80 days. If he does achieve the feat, then I'll be collecting another 2.5pts profit from my 5/2 BOG bet with Bet365.

There should be no problem for us all to get those odds as that price is currently available in 8 bookies as I know of, so you can either go with my choice or take your pick of the rest by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.25 Newton Abbot

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3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 12th June 2015

  1. jethro

    Hi Chris, I see they’re forecasting heavy rain from about midday Friday at Newton Abbot. I might just take the hit on missing out on what could be a good early price, to see if the rain eventuates or not before placing my bet.
    Brody Bleu’s chances might be adversely impacted if it becomes worse than “good to soft” me thinks. Best of luck as always…

  2. Jon Ridley

    If you check out instant expert for the race, and change the ground conditions to soft, Brody Bleu loses the green tab. However the other horses don’t fare well either, so he still looks the most likely winner to me. Competitive race though, and at least 3 of the others are in with a chance.

    Incidentally, on my instant expert the distance tab was set at 5f for this race!! Is this just me? Changing it to 2m4 / 2m6 looked much better.

    Jon R

  3. jethro

    Very good point you make Jon! However, Atlantic Roller is the one that scares me the most if it becomes soft or heavy. He has won on soft and also run well on heavy in the past; and the Paul Nicholls / Sam Twiston-Davies combination in opposition obviously speaks for itself …
    Anyway it’s all conjecture at this stage. I see the 5/2 on Brody Bleu has all but disappeared this morning and the forecast heavy rain may well bypass the racecourse; which could well mean that I have shot myself in the foot again…

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