Stat of the Day, 12th July 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.35 Uttoxeter : Terry The Fish @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/8 Led to 6th, led again before 8th, clear before 2 out, ridden before last, kept on strongly to win by 5 lengths.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

8.55 Kempton...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hackney Road4/1 BOG

Why?

A 4yr old filly that has 3 wins and 2 placed finishes from her 5 career starts so far, all over tonight's 6f trip, including a course and distance win LTO a week ago. She's unpenalised for that win, as it came in an apprentices' race and her jockey that day, Joshua Bryan retains the the ride.

Joshua was claiming 3lbs last week, but gets to claim 5lbs tonight, so she's effectively 2lbs better off here, which should help.

This filly has 3 wins and a place from 4 A/W starts and these 4 runs include...

  • 3+1 / 4 at 6f, 2+1 / 3 on Polytrack, 2/2 over this course and distance, 2/2 on Standard to Slow and 1/1 under Joshua Bryan.

She's trained by John Butler, whose A/W handicappers are 32/200 (16% SR) for 78.2pts (+39.1% ROI) since the start of 2015, including...

  • those priced at 2/1 to 12/1 : 27/103 (26.2%) for 126.8pts (+123.1%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 17/76 (22.4%) for 51.1pts (+67.2%)
  • at Kempton : 8/39 (20.5%) for 26pts (+66.5%)
  • and females are 7/32 (21.9%) for 38.8[ts (+121.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Hackney Road @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.55 Kempton..

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 12th July 2017

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      They generally shorten.
      Partly because we get in early before the majority of punters even look at a racecard and partly because there are now quite a few of us backing the same horse.

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