Stat of the Day, 12th July 2016

Monday's Result :

7.10 Wolverhampton : Rich Again @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on to lead towards finish to win by a neck)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.30 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Samtu at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has looked much improved for a switch to the Skelton yard, finishing 1225182 in seven efforts over hurdles and was possibly unlucky to run into a progressive Nicky Henderson improver last time out. That was here at Worcester over course and distance, when he was a gallant 12/1 runner-up to eventually well backed 6/4 fav Barman (who we had backed ourselves as that day's SotD!).

There's nothing of Barman's quality here today and I expect another bold effort from the front on a track that rewards front runners.

Trained by Dan Skelton, as I mentioned earlier and it's worth noting than Dan's Class 1 to 4 handicap hurdlers are 38 from 205 (18.5% SR) for 38.pts (+18.7% ROI) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 12/1, from which...

  • those ridden by Harry Skelton are 30/145 (20.7%) for 59.8pts (+41.2%)
  • his 5/6 yr olds are 23/94 (24.5%) for 60pts (+63.9%)
  • Class 4 runners are 17/73 (23.3%) for 16.4pts (+22.4%)
  • and those racing over trips of 2m to 2m1f are 13/63 (20.6%) for 23.6pts (+37.5%)

AND...from the above, I can also tell you that when Harry rides Dan's 5/6 yr olds at Class 4, they've won 12 of 34 (35.3%) for 37.1pts (+109.1%), with those racing over 2m4f or shorter winning 8 of 20 (40%) for 26.1pts (+130.5%)

But wait, there's another little bit more! Dan Skelton's runners turned out within 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish LTO are 41/113 (36.36%) for 35.5pts (+31.4%) with Harry riding 27 winners from 76 (35.5%) for 29.1pts (+38.3%).

...so the call is a 1pt win bet on Samtu at 4/1 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook, who were the first to show at 5.15pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 12th July 2016

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.