Stat of the Day, 12th December 2017

Monday's Result :

3.15 Fontwell : Stoical Patient @ 2/1 BOG non-runner Withdrawn at lunchtime due to a change in the advertised going.

We attempt a second start to the new week via Tuesday's...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Entertaining Ben @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,234 to the winner...

A 4 yr old gelding on a hat-trick after winning over this trip at Chelmsford 25 days ago and also here at Lingfield over course and distance almost 10 weeks ago. That C&D win was the only previous occasion that today's jockey Kieran Shoemark has ridden this horse, so they've a record of sorts to defend!

Trainer Amy Murphy might only be in her mid-20's and relatively new in trainer terms, but she has some good experience behind her and has been profitable to back blindly so far. Admittedly, she has only had 145 runners to date, but 19 winners (13.1% SR) have generated 59.9pts profit at an ROI of some 41.3% and these are impressive numbers indeed as a start-out trainer.

Of those 145 runners...

  • handicappers are 13/95 (13.7%) for 22.1pts (+23.3%)
  • on the A/W : 6/44 (13.6%) for 38.7pts (+88%)
  • in A/W handicaps : 5/37 (13.5%) for 40.1pts (+108.3%)
  • over this 5f trip : 3/18 (16.6%) for 27.7pts (+154%)
  • LTO winners are 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%)
  • here at Lingfield : 2/12 (16.6%) for 18.3pts (+152.5%)
  • over 5f on the A/W : 3/9 (33.3%) for 36.72pts (+408%)
  • on the A/W here at Lingfield : 2/9 (22.2%) for 21.3pts (+236.6%)
  • and LTO winners running on the A?W are 2/4 (50%) for 16.76pts (+419%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Entertaining Ben @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & Marathon at 5.30pm on Monday, with plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

2 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 12th December 2017

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    I’ve gone with Marathon myself but don’t forget, guys, they won’t go BOG (if indeed they do; you need to look for the yellow logo at the top of the racecard because they don’t designate all races best odds) until 9am.
    Paul

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