Stat of the Day, 12th December 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2012

Well, if recent selections had seen us pepper the target and rattle the crossbar, then yesterday's pick was a shot that went out for a throw in. Awful. Not much else to say about it, except the drift beforehand told its own story and I can only assume Kaituna didn't handle the ground.

Prospects for a turf meeting today look bleak, with both Leicester and Hexham inspecting, so it's off to sandy suburbia for Stat of the Day, and the…

3.15 Kempton

There are slim statistical pickings in truth this afternoon and it's a trainer with a fine record who I'm hoping will get me personally and, to a lesser degree SotD, off the cold list.

Ralph Beckett is a good sport, and demonstrated by his placed effort in the charity race at Wincanton last Thursday. But, more materially from our perspective, he's a bloody good trainer, with decent figures at numerous tracks. One of those tracks is the beach at Kempton, where he's saddled 224 runners, of which 47 have won, snaffling a profit of 64.97 points.

Not to be sniffed at.

Today, he's just the solitary runner, Lunette, in the mile maiden. This young lady is perfectly bred for a mile, being by Teofilio out of a Grand Lodge mare; and she was well fancied on her début and only run to date.

In fact, she was sent off the 9/4 favourite that day, before finishing a slightly disappointing seventh of thirteen. However, there were only six and a half lengths between her and victory, and she ran as green as the baize on a snooker table, and was only hand ridden when it was clear her chance had gone.

Bound to be more clued up after that taster, this looks a pretty weak affair and, even though she's got a wide draw, she ought to finish off her race much more strongly this time around.

Each way the play, solely on the strength of the trainer's track record, and the 12/1 with William Hill looks fair enough.

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.15 Kempton

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 12th December 2012

  1. horseprofiles

    Have to agree with you on this one – delving a little deeper with his maidens at this track under the following conditions shows the trainer to have a 58% SR for a profit of 45.81 points
    Jockey – George Baker, J Crowley, JP Fahy andMartin Lane
    Odds – 20/1 or less
    Days since last run – 30 days or less
    Class – 5 and 6 races only

  2. Mike

    Hi Matt, with so little racing on I tried to guess SotD today – very sad I know, but I needed to do something to replace my daily fix of analysing the jumps races. I came up with Tuscan Gold in the 4.45 at Kempton – trainer Laura Mongan 9/72 for +48.50 at the track, and a lot of that coming from the longer distances. Tuscan Gold hasn’t run on the surface for a while, but record is 2-1 from two attempts at this track/distance. Weight seems fair enough and in reasonable form over hurdles. Wrong guess, obviously, but I’ve had a small each way tickle on it at a big price, as well as my usual stake on SotD. Good luck!
    Mike

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