Thursday's Result :
5.05 Yarmouth : Novoman @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Led, ridden when hard pressed 1f out, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, headed towards finish, no extra, beaten by half a length)
Friday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Dutch Law at 4/1 BOG
Hughie Morrison has got his string in fine fettle at present, rattling up 18 winners from 78 (23.1% SR) in the last 50 days for level stakes profits of 53.9pts at an ROI of 69.1%. And of those 78 runners...
- those on the Flat (turf) : 16/61 (26.2%) for 60.3pts (+98.8%)
- in handicaps : 14/53 (26.4%) for 58.4pts (+110.2%)
- and in Flat handicaps : 12/38 (31.6%) for 62.8pts (+165.3%)
With this being a Flat handicap, we should look at those 38 runners a little closer for pointers and doing so tells us that...
- they are 7/25 (25%) for 30.1pts (+120.4%) on Good to Firm ground
- 4 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 25.1pts (+192.9%)
- and here at Newmarket, they are 3/6 (50%) for 8.04pts (+134%)
So, a quick scan of today's fixture shows just the one Hughie Morrison runner, the 4 yr old gelding Dutch Law, who not only benefits from the above trainer stats, his own profile suggests he'll go well today. He's already won 3 of 11 Flat handicaps himself, but the following data from those 11 runs is of particular relevance and interest today...
- he has 3 wins and 3 places (1252211) on a straight track
- 3 wins & 2 places (125211) from 6 Good to Firm runs
- 3 wins & 2 places (12211) from 5 races after a top 2 finish LTO
- 3 wins & 1 place (1211) from 4 runs here at Newmarket
- 3 wins & 1 place (1211) from 4 runs at odds of 5/2 to 11/2
- 2 wins & 2 places (2211) from 4 runs at Class 2/3
- 2 wins & 1 place (211) in fields of 7 to 10 runners
- 1 win & 1 place (21) in two outings with today's jockey
- 1 from 1 over course and distance
- 1 from 1 after just 1-7 days rest
And, not only do all the above apply today, Dutch Law comes here in great form, finishing 2211 in his last four runs, 3 of which were here at Newmarket (211), the most recent being a comfortable 2 lengths victory, 6 days ago in a Class 2 contest and he now takes a drop in class to run here.
...so, it's... a 1pt win bet on Dutch Law at 4/1 BOG with any of half a dozen or so firms offering that price at 6.10pm. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...
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