Stat of the Day, 12th August 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.05 Yarmouth : Novoman @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Led, ridden when hard pressed 1f out, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, headed towards finish, no extra, beaten by half a length)

Friday's pick goes in the...

8.15 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dutch Law at 4/1 BOG

Why?

Hughie Morrison has got his string in fine fettle at present, rattling up 18 winners from 78 (23.1% SR) in the last 50 days for level stakes profits of 53.9pts at an ROI of 69.1%. And of those 78 runners...

  • those on the Flat (turf) : 16/61 (26.2%) for 60.3pts (+98.8%)
  • in handicaps : 14/53 (26.4%) for 58.4pts (+110.2%)
  • and in Flat handicaps : 12/38 (31.6%) for 62.8pts (+165.3%)

With this being a Flat handicap, we should look at those 38 runners a little closer for pointers and doing so tells us that...

  • they are 7/25 (25%) for 30.1pts (+120.4%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 4 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 25.1pts (+192.9%)
  • and here at Newmarket, they are 3/6 (50%) for 8.04pts (+134%)

So, a quick scan of today's fixture shows just the one Hughie Morrison runner, the 4 yr old gelding Dutch Law, who not only benefits from the above trainer stats, his own profile suggests he'll go well today. He's already won 3 of 11 Flat handicaps himself, but the following data from those 11 runs is of particular relevance and interest today...

  • he has 3 wins and 3 places (1252211) on a straight track
  • 3 wins & 2 places (125211) from 6 Good to Firm runs
  • 3 wins & 2 places (12211) from 5 races after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3 wins & 1 place (1211) from 4 runs here at Newmarket
  • 3 wins & 1 place (1211) from 4 runs at odds of 5/2 to 11/2
  • 2 wins & 2 places (2211) from 4 runs at Class 2/3
  • 2 wins & 1 place (211) in fields of 7 to 10 runners
  • 1 win & 1 place (21) in two outings with today's jockey
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 after just 1-7 days rest

And, not only do all the above apply today, Dutch Law comes here in great form, finishing 2211 in his last four runs, 3 of which were here at Newmarket (211), the most recent being a comfortable 2 lengths victory, 6 days ago in a Class 2 contest and he now takes a drop in class to run here.

...so, it's... a 1pt win bet on Dutch Law at 4/1 BOG with any of half a dozen or so firms offering that price at 6.10pm. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Newmarket.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.