Stat of the Day, 11th November 2012

 

SotD Remembers

SotD Remembers

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2012

Well, no respite for either SotD's cold spell or my current bout of manflu from yesterday's selection. Dorcas Lane was well backed from our 9/1 price into 5/1 at the off, but that's as good as it got. She never got involved in the race and duly trooped home in 9th position with just 3 others behind her. Disappointing was the word I diplomatically selected on seeing a re-run after I got home from seeing my football team fail abjectly in the art of defending yet again!

We're due a winner for sure and to that end, we're off to Wales for a Class 3 Beginners Chase over 2 miles and 3.5 furlongs on ground expected to be Soft, but better in places. The race in question is a reasonably competitive-looking 13 runner event, the...

2.30 Ffos Las

From an admittedly fairly small sample size, Anthony Honeyball is our go-to man at Ffos Las. This friend of Geegeez has had excellent results at the Welsh track since sending his first runner there back in December 2010. Anthony has sent just 11 horses to the track in total, but the return of 5 winners and one runner-up explains why we look for his reappearance here.

This 45% strike rate has brought in a very healthy level stakes profit of some 18 pts (164%) and if we narrow his runners down even further to chasers alone (as per today's race), the record is quite simply four winners from four for 21pts profit: outstanding stuff.

A quick look at the declarations for today shows that Mr Honeyball has just the one chaser out today in the shape of four-year-old filly Jackies Solitaire, who had some decent efforts last season over hurdles around this time of year and looks to have a decent chance at bottom weight, helped even further by the jockey's 3lb claim.

As is often the case, that jockey is the very promising and talented Miss Rachael Green who has been on board for 2 winners and a place in seven attempt for Anthony Honeyball at this track. She has only ridden one chaser here for the trainer, steering Victors Serenade to a comfortable 11-length victory back in March.

Having checked the markets at 8.30am, 4/1 BOG was available with bet365, so the play for me is a straightforward 1pt win bet on Jackies Solitaire at 4/1 BOG, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Ffos Las

PS Although Anthony Honeyball's chasers have performed better than his hurdlers here at Ffos Las, it would be folly to completely dismiss the chances of him saddling a winner in the 3.05 , where Velator holds claims at odds of 7/2 or better.

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 11th November 2012

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Alan, I knew I was leaving home at 6 am for the bulk of the day, so the post was written overnight. I put it in our scheduler for 1045 to try and cut down on the recent spate of complaints about us going to press too early. I added the price at 9am and left it as you see it now. It seems that were danmed whichever way we play it at the moment.

  1. Johnny5

    Chris – don’t listen to the whiners

    Put up your selection whenever you see best – evening before , 03:00am or morning or 11am

    The people complaining earlier – especially that irrational Atholl Blair should NOT be pandered to

    Keep on doing what you’ve done for so long – it’s good

    Some People who have just joined this site are gold diggers and don’t understand

    On another point re run of form .. I know many pro punters who have had a similarly ( even worse ) time of it through the summer into early autumn

    The weather has reaked havoc with the form book

    You keep on as you and Matt have been with your statistical logic and eventually it’ll come good

    Noone rational who has been following you guys for the long term is damning you – just the jonnycumlatelys who don’t get it !

  2. Ian L

    Yes and having re-read all this I’d like to be a bit clearer. It goes against my style to make personal comments but I thought Athol Blair was not only very rude but completely wrong. Matt was so tolerant I thought they must be mates. However,speaking as a man who gets up early and goes to work in the morning the earlier posts are better. I miss the price when I cant get to a computer mid-morning. I don’t expect any special consideration but neither do I want to be disadvantaged by someone else’s preference especially when it appears daft! Cheers Ian

  3. Martyn Colebrook

    Have to agree with the majority of posters on here. Don’t pander to the idiots and keep up the good work. A stats-based approach will always come to fruition.Martyn

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.