Stat of the Day, 11th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.35 Chester : Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, caught wide 8f out, pushed along and outpaced over 4f out, rallied on outside under pressure 2f out, went 3rd moderate inside final furlong)

We now continue with Friday's...

2.40 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  2m1½f  Handicap Hurdle (4yo+) on good ground worth £3899 to the winner... 

Why?

A poor looking race in all honesty with our pick's recent form sticking out like a sore thumb in a field of opponents without a win between them in the last 9+ months, whereas the penny has dropped of late for our boy (who is still only 6 yrs old), who has finished 212 since reverting back to shorter trips.

The win came here at Market Rasen over course and distance almost seven weeks ago in a Class 4 contest, so technically this should be an easier challenge, although that's not always the case!

Stat-wise, he's one of my "1234" horses where I back horses that won two starts ago (ie 1) and then finished 2nd. 3rd or 4th (ie 234) last time out less than three weeks ago. There are, of course, other rules/filters and these look far more complex in print that in actual usage, but are as follows...

  • UK NH Handicaps
  • 2013 to now
  • trips of 3.5 miles and shorter
  • OR of -2 to +11 from LTO
  • Class Move -2 to +2 from LTO
  • Distance Move -4.5f to +8.5f

These seem very broad and that's by design to gave a decent sample size of around 200 runners per year, which helps smooth out any anomalies/variance. Such criteria has actually generated 234 winners from 1112 (21% SR) runners for profits of 295.2pts (+26.6% ROI), from which...

  • males are 205/969 (21.2%) for 271.6pts (+28%)
  • off a mark within 2lbs of last run : 182/852 (21.4%) for 260.5pts (+30.6%)
  • runner-up LTO : 116/528 (22%) for 122.8pts (+23.3%)
  • on Good ground : 99/460 (21.5%) for 151.5pts (+32.9%)
  • and here at Market Rasen : 13/50 (26%) for 15.24pts (+30.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betway & Bet365 at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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