Thursday's Result :
3.05 Carlisle : Isaacstown Lad @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 7th, ridden before 2 out, soon no chance with winner, kept on same pace)
Friday's runner goes in the...
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Saved My Bacon @ 100/30 BOG
Chris Dwyer's 5 yr old mare drops in class to run here after the benefit of five weeks rest after her pair of runner-up finishes a week apart on her last two outings, both here at Chelmsford. There was no disgrace in being beaten by the progressive Bosham in both races, as the winner subsequently completed a hat-trick and is now rated in the mid-90's!
Since the start of 2013, Chris Dwyer's A/W handicappers are 58 from 353 (16.4% SR) for profits of 138pts (+39.1% ROI) from blindly backing all runners and if you want fewer bets than that...
- those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 53/212 (25% SR) for 85.2pts (+40.2% ROI)
- those running here at Chelmsford are 17/85 (20% SR) for 118.5pts (+139.4% ROI)
- and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 14/43 (32.6% SR) for 31.9pts at an ROI of 74.2%
The Dwyer / de Sousa / Chelmsford hcp angle = 9/25 (36% SR) for 25.6pts (+102.4% ROI), of which those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 15.6pts (+111.5% ROI).
I could, of course, leave it there and Saved My Bacon would still be valid statistical proposition, but the drop in class could also be a major factor here and since the start of 2013, Mr Dwyer's A/W hcp class droppers are 17/89 (19.1% SR) for 29pts (+32.6% ROI), with the following data of particular relevence today...
- those running over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs are 11/47 (23.4% SR) for 45.8pts (+97.5% ROI)
- those last seen 21 to 60 days ago are 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 35.7pts (+96.6% ROI)
- female runners are 6/32 (18.75% SR) for 19pts (+59.3% ROI)
- those priced at 7/4 to 11/2 are 12/27 (44.4% SR) for 33.5pts (+124.2% ROI)
- here at Chelmsford, they are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 18.25pts (+86.9% ROI)
- those dropping down from Class 4 are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 10.4pts (+54.5% ROI)
- and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 27pts at an ROI of 207.8%!
So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Saved My Bacon at 100/30 BOG with Hills who are currently the standout price, although only a couple of firms had opened a book at 5.35pm. To check the full market later, simply...
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