Stat of the Day, 11th March 2016

Thursday's Result :

3.05 Carlisle : Isaacstown Lad @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 7th, ridden before 2 out, soon no chance with winner, kept on same pace)

Friday's runner goes in the...

8.15 Chelmsford:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Saved My Bacon @ 100/30 BOG


Chris Dwyer's 5 yr old mare drops in class to run here after the benefit of five weeks rest after her pair of runner-up finishes a week apart on her last two outings, both here at Chelmsford. There was no disgrace in being beaten by the progressive Bosham in both races, as the winner subsequently completed a hat-trick and is now rated in the mid-90's!

Since the start of 2013, Chris Dwyer's A/W handicappers are 58 from 353 (16.4% SR) for profits of 138pts (+39.1% ROI) from blindly backing all runners and if you want fewer bets than that...

  • those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 53/212 (25% SR) for 85.2pts (+40.2% ROI)
  • those running here at Chelmsford are 17/85 (20% SR) for 118.5pts (+139.4% ROI)
  • and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 14/43 (32.6% SR) for 31.9pts at an ROI of 74.2%

The Dwyer / de Sousa / Chelmsford hcp angle = 9/25 (36% SR) for 25.6pts (+102.4% ROI), of which those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 15.6pts (+111.5% ROI).

I could, of course, leave it there and Saved My Bacon would still be valid statistical proposition, but the drop in class could also be a major factor here and since the start of 2013, Mr Dwyer's A/W hcp class droppers are 17/89 (19.1% SR) for 29pts (+32.6% ROI), with the following data of particular relevence today...

  • those running over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs are 11/47 (23.4% SR) for 45.8pts (+97.5% ROI)
  • those last seen 21 to 60 days ago are 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 35.7pts (+96.6% ROI)
  • female runners are 6/32 (18.75% SR) for 19pts (+59.3% ROI)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 11/2 are 12/27 (44.4% SR) for 33.5pts (+124.2% ROI)
  • here at Chelmsford, they are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 18.25pts (+86.9% ROI)
  • those dropping down from Class 4 are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 10.4pts (+54.5% ROI)
  • and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 27pts at an ROI of 207.8%!

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Saved My Bacon at 100/30 BOG with Hills who are currently the standout price, although only a couple of firms had opened a book at 5.35pm. To check the full market later, simply... here for the betting on the 8.15 Chelmsford

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Here is today's racecard...

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 11th March 2016

  1. jethro

    You must have thrown all the toys out of your cot by now Chris! I thought De Sousa might have been able to get the horse a little closer from the ace draw – from that position everything had to fall right for him, which it didn’t. It was sure the right shout at the price though and we weren’t the only ones to get our fingers burnt there. After the straight run of seconds this week it was the last thing we needed – hope tomorrow gives us a bit of pocket money for Cheltenham next week anyway. Chin up, it must all change soon…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I don’t like to criticise jockeys, but I thought SdS got it wrong tonight. A blind man could see he wasn’t going to get a clear run there.

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