Stat of the Day, 11th March 2014
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and had I known that Monday's selection Fredo was going to drift out to an SP of 7/1, I'd have advised an E/W bet. As it was, the horse was second, but a loser for us. He stayed on well enough, but the leader was easing down at the finish after a job well done.
It's Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival today, so I've got a 7 furlong Class 6 A/W handicap for you to consider. It's the last race of the day, the...
Where Louis Steward will ride the 9/2 BOG shot Choice of Destiny for trainer Philip McBride.
Philip McBride is one of those trainers I love to follow for one simple reason: he's profitable. If you had staked £10 on each of his 328 runners since the start of 2011, the 48 winning bets (14.63% SR) would have given you a net profit of £893.60 or a 27.24% return on your stakes.
That's from all runners in all races at all odds, very simple. If, however, we focus ourselves on our own area of betting ie 6/1 and under, the trainer's record is 35/115 (30.43% SR) for 47pts (+40.9% ROI) profit.
Mr McBride's runners here at Wolverhampton in the same time frame are 9 winners from 46 (19.6% SR) for 79.15pts (+172.1% ROI), with those priced at 6/1 or under winning 6 of 17 contests (35.3% SR) for 11.94pts (+70.2% ROI).
Furthermore, jockey Louis Steward has a record of 8/24 here at Wolverhampton for 12.8pts profit, of which he has ridden three winners from the five McBride horses he has partnered here at this track, yielding 10.4pts in the process.
Philip McBride also has a very impressive record over the last few years specifically in A/W handicaps,. where his record is 19 winners from 89 (19.4% SR) for profits of 26.9pts or 29.7% of stakes and he's 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 29pts (+111.4% ROI) and from these 89 runners, Louis Steward is 4 from 8 for 13.8pts.
If, as earlier, we look closer at those runners priced at 6/1 or under, Philip McBride's record in A/W handicaps is 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 26.1pts (+62.2% ROI), of which he's 5/11 for 10.5pts here at Wolverhampton with Louis Steward riding three winners from seven.
I appreciate that this might be a bit of a numbers overload, but the stats do suggest that we should back all Philips runners in handicaps here and as Choice of Destiny is his only declared entry here, it's Hobson's Choice.
Bet365 were the only game in town at 8.45pm on Monday evening, so it's a 1pt win bet on Choice of Destiny at 9/2 BOG with Bet365. If you choose to wait for more markets to form or if you're reading this on Tuesday, please...