Stat of the Day, 11th July 2017

Monday's Result :

3.15 Ayr : Braes of Lochalsh @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 5/2 Led, clear 10f out, reduced lead 6f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.35 Uttoxeter...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Terry The Fish3/1 BOG

Why?

A 5 yr old gelding on a hat-trick following back to back successes over this track and trip, the latest of which was a comfortable 11 lengths win 20 days ago. This horse has been flagged several times on my database report and interests me in plenty of ways, but in the interests of time/brevity, I'm just going to give you five things to think about...

  1. Jonjo O'Neill's horses ridden by Aidan Coleman here at Uttoxeter are 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 3.71pts (+9.76% ROI), from which handicappers are 7/27 (25.9%) for 7.95pts (+29.4%) with hcp hurdlers winning 3 of 9 (33.3%) for 2.93pts (+32.6%)
  2. From 2012-2017, male hcp hurdlers who won another hcp hurdle by 4 to 15 lengths LTO 3-45 days ago are 337/1277 (26.4%) for 250.9pts (+19.7%)
  3. Jonjo's hcp hurdlers who were LTO winners 16-30 days ago are 20/70 (28.6%) for 26.7pts (+38.%) since 2012
  4. Since 2008 in hcp hurdles, LTO winners with a previous C&D won are 338/1746 (19.4%) for 163.4pts (+9.4%) with those who won at the same course and distance LTO winning 242 of 1193 (20.3%) for 152.6pts (+12.8%)
  5.  And since 2012 in UK hacp hurdles, those horses being asked to carry 12-0 to 12-4 (inclusive) are 58/168 (34.5%) for 80.9pts (+48.2%), of which Class 4 runners are 31/81 (38.3%) for 55.8pts (+68.8%), those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 5/13 (38.5%) for 7.7pts (+59.2%) and those ridden by Aidan at Class 4 are 3/6 (50%) for 10.75pts (+179.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Terry The Fish3/1 BOG which was widely available at 12.15am on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Uttoxeter..

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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