Stat of the Day, 11th July 2014
Yesterday's selection Moscato ran pretty well, but not well enough for us to return a profit. In fact that was easily his best performance to date, despite looking a little one paced towards the finish.
He had travelled pretty well throughout the race until the closing stages and perhaps he might now drop back a furlong for his next effort.
I put him up at 5/2 BOG which looked good advice as he went below 2/1 mid-afternoon, but he drifted out quite a bit pre-race and eventually went off at 100/30, finishing fifth of the seven runners, but only beaten by three lengths this time. That's a considerable improvement on the combined margins of 70 lengths that he lost by in his three one-mile maidens.
But a loss is a loss and I'm keen to quickly make amends via today's...
Where I've backed Squats at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power. Trained by William Haggas and scheduled to be ridden by Liam Jones, this will be this 2yr old's third start to date and his first in handicap (nursery) company.
So, Chris, why should we back this one?
1. Well, his yard is in great form, as testified by the following set of data...
In the last month : 21 winners (27.3% SR) & 16 others placed from 77 for 49.3pts (+64% ROI) profit.
In the two weeks : 7 winners (25.9% SR) & 6 places from 27 for 16.6pts (+61.6% ROI)
In the last seven days : 4 winners (40% SR) plus a placer from 10 for 26.12pts (+261.2% ROI).
2. Liam Jones and William Haggas have a good record together, especially in handicap company (including nursery races).
Since the start of the 2010 campaign, Liam has ridden 96 Haggas trained handicappers priced between Evens and 12/1. 23 of the 94 (24.5% SR) have been returned as winners and the 33.1pts profits generated is equivalent to 35.2% of all stakes invested.
There's no flash in the 12/1 winners distorting the figures, for they are just as (if mot more so!) successful at the sharper end of the market, where their record at odds of between Evens and 4/1 reads as 15 winners from 38 (39.5% SR) for 13.95pts (+36.7% ROI).
3. William Haggas' handicap debutants generally put up a good show of themselves.
Since 2008, his record with such horses is 58 winners from 229, a very healthy/impressive strike rate of 25.3% generating level stakes profits of 54.4pts, or 23.8% ROI. And he seems to have more joy at the lower end of racing ie Classes 4 to 6, where has had 42 winners from 141 (39.8% SR) for 67.4pts (+47.8% ROI) profit.
From the 141 runners above, 87 were priced up between 11/8 and 6/1 (ie general SotD territory) with 35 (40.2% SR) going on to win with the resultant 63.5pts profit giving an excellent 73% yield.
Incidentally, in nurseries alone, William Haggas' debutants are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 21.6pts (+72.1% SR).
Squats comes here after just two runs so far. He was outpaced over 5f on debut at Sandown four weeks ago and was immediately moved up a class to today's level and also stepped up a furlong to compete at today's 6f trip at Ayr eight days later. The extra distance worked in his favour, as he grabbed the lead inside the final furlong and just held on to score by a head. Liam Jones was riding him for the first/only time that day and they renew the partnership here..
That was twenty days ago, when they just managed to hold off Mark Johnston's Surewecan by a head and the Johnston horse reappeared at Hamilton 10 days, winning over today's trip by the best part of four lengths.
A similar result would please me no end today and I'm confident of a payout from my 1pt win bet on Squats at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power. Prices do, of course, fluctuate, so it's never a bad idea to...
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