Tuesday's Result :
1.15 Southwell : L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Keen, raced wide, close up, tracked leader 7f out, led over 4f out, ran on for a comfortable win by 7 lengths ahead of a well strung out field.
Wednesday's pick goes in the...
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Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG
This 6 yr old gelding has acquitted himself well enough in two starts so far, finishing 3rd on debut in a bumper at Worcester back in June 2016, before becoming a runner-up at Ffos Las on heavy ground when making his hurdling debut three weeks ago.
That last run was on heavy ground,l so his stamina seems fine and it was also at a higher grade (C4) than today. And to put that race into context, he was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the more experienced and 132-rated Robinshill, who last weekend suffered a defeat by a similar margin off 135 in a Class 2 contest at Sandown.
So, if the form pans out as I hope it will, trainer David Pipe will have another winner at Taunton, where since 2008, his 6 to 10 yr olds are 28/164 (17.1% SR) for 36.2pts (+22.1% ROI), including of note today...
- males are 28/149 (18.8%) for 51.2pts (+34.4%)
- hurdlers are 19/123 (15.5%) for 36.3pts (+29.5%)
- those stepping in trip by more than 1f are 11/59 (18.6%) for 52.4pts (+88.8%)
- and those racing over this 3m 0.5f trip are 7/26 (26.9%) for 64.1pts (+246.7%)
That stat about the step up in trip is no surprise really, as a quick look at the Trainer Snippets report tells us that over the last two years, the David Pipe runners stepping up in trip by more than 25% of the distance they last ran are 19/88 (21.6% SR) for 46.83pts (+53.2% ROI) at SP, figures which can easily be beaten by Betfair SP or BOG odds, which got me digging again!
And what I discovered what that David Pipe hurdlers stepping up in trip by 3.5f to 9f are 67/393 (17.1% SR) for 121.7pts (+31% ROI) since 2011, of which...
- 6/7 yr olds are 30/152 (19.7%) for 168.8pts (+111.1%)
- those racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 30/143 (21%) for 155.7pts (+108.9%)
- and like Stay Out Of Court, 6/7 yr olds racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 18/67 (26.9% SR) for 154.9pts (+231.1% ROI)
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Paddy Power and a half dozen others at 6.30pm on Tuesday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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