Stat of the Day, 11th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.15 Southwell : L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Keen, raced wide, close up, tracked leader 7f out, led over 4f out, ran on for a comfortable win by 7 lengths ahead of a well strung out field.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.05 Taunton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has acquitted himself well enough in two starts so far, finishing 3rd on debut in a bumper at Worcester back in June 2016, before becoming a runner-up at Ffos Las on heavy ground when making his hurdling debut three weeks ago.

That last run was on heavy ground,l so his stamina seems fine and it was also at a higher grade (C4) than today.  And to put that race into context, he was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the more experienced and 132-rated Robinshill, who last weekend suffered a defeat by a similar margin off 135 in a Class 2 contest at Sandown.

So, if the form pans out as I hope it will, trainer David Pipe will have another winner at Taunton, where since 2008, his 6 to 10 yr olds are 28/164 (17.1% SR) for 36.2pts (+22.1% ROI), including of note today...

  • males are 28/149 (18.8%) for 51.2pts (+34.4%)
  • hurdlers are 19/123 (15.5%) for 36.3pts (+29.5%)
  • those stepping in trip by more than 1f are 11/59 (18.6%) for 52.4pts (+88.8%)
  • and those racing over this 3m 0.5f trip are 7/26 (26.9%) for 64.1pts (+246.7%)

That stat about the step up in trip is no surprise really, as a quick look at the Trainer Snippets report tells us that over the last two years, the David Pipe runners stepping up in trip by more than 25% of the distance they last ran are 19/88 (21.6% SR) for 46.83pts (+53.2% ROI) at SP, figures which can easily be beaten by Betfair SP or BOG odds, which got me digging again!

And what I discovered what that David Pipe hurdlers stepping up in trip by 3.5f to 9f are 67/393 (17.1% SR) for 121.7pts (+31% ROI) since 2011, of which...

  • 6/7 yr olds are 30/152 (19.7%) for 168.8pts (+111.1%)
  • those racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 30/143 (21%) for 155.7pts (+108.9%)
  • and like Stay Out Of Court, 6/7 yr olds racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 18/67 (26.9% SR) for 154.9pts (+231.1% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Paddy Power and a half dozen others at 6.30pm on Tuesday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

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