Stat of the Day, 11th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.45 Kempton : Hollywood All Star @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (In touch, chased leaders 5th, ridden to challenge 2 out, kept on same pace approaching last)

Monday's runner goes in the...

4.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Little Stampy @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

There's not much in the way of decent form on offer here today, but this 5 yr old Mare was a course and distance winner last out on what was her very frst trip to the UK. This Irish raider was a winner at Tramore over today's trip back in Aufgust 2014 before enduring a losing streak of 9 races over a 16 month period, in which she didn't even muster a top 3 finish before that win on her introduction to Tapeta 24 days ago.

She got home by a neck, staying on well to lead late on, suggesting she may well have had something in hand and that a 3lb rise might not anchor her just yet. That win last time out interests me, as she becomes one of my "back to form" runners that I like to back here at Wolverhampton. The criteria for qualification look complicated on paper, but they're really not!

I need: LTO A/W winners 1-30 days ago / unplaced in each of previous 3 (or more) runs before the win / now priced at 2-1 to 6-1 here at Wolverhampton.

Such runners are 78/327 (23.9% SR) for 76.6pts (+23.4% ROI) over the last 7 years and with today's contest firmly in mind, here are ten profitable angles from those 327 runners...

1. Those who won by less than 2 lengths LTO are 63/250 (25.2% SR) for 80.5pts (+32.2% ROI)

2. 4 to 8 yr olds are 55/211 (26.1% SR) for 84.3pts (+40% ROI)

3. Those who ran here at Wolverhampton LTO are 52/206 (25.2% SR) for 54.2pts (+26.3% ROI)

4. Those running over the same trip as LTO are 53/197 (26.9% SR) for 79.6pts (+40.4% ROI)

5. Those rated (OR) 65 or less are 52/195 (26.7% SR) for 82.4pts (+42.3% ROI)

6. Class 6/7 runners are 44/175 (25.1% SR) for 54.4pts (+31.1% ROI)

7. Females are 19/79 (24.1% SR) for 21.6pts (+27.3% ROI)

8. Those last seen 21 to 30 days ago are 24/71 (33.8% SR) for 51.4pts (+72.4% ROI)

9. Those racing over 1m4f and beyond are 15/52 (28.8% SR) for 31.2pts (+60% ROI)

10. Those raised 3lbs for the LTO win are 13/49 (26.5% SR) for 17.3pts (+35.3% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 12.50am is...

A 1pt win bet on Little Stampy and that's at 3/1 BOG with either Bet365, BetVictor or betfair, whilst Ladbrokes offer the same, but are non-BOG until later this morning. To see your preferred bookie's prices, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

10 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 11th January 2016

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. Nice ride, that. I’ve had a L15 with Pacolito (12/1), Myfiftythreedotcom (2nd, unfortunately, took 20/1), Little Stampy (11/4) with Jolly Red Jeanz (9/2) to come for a very nice day, considering I was on Pacolito with a single as well. Thanks,
    Paul

  2. jamesfeeney

    Great stats for today’s winner & you out-thought Hugh Taylor on ATR as he picked the 2nd horse. Not many people can do that! To add to a previous comment, I’d say November & December were my worst betting months in 6 years, as everything seemed to struggle, so it’s good to see things turning the corner and the stat of the day is a part of my staple diet and helping me towards a brighter January! Can Chris stop the rain or is that asking too much!?

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Thanks, James, very kind.

      Hugh Taylor is very gifted at what he does, as is Price, but if I might blow the geegeez trumpet briefly, our numbers for 2015 stack up well against theirs, despite a personally disappointing last quarter.

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