Stat of the Day, 11th December 2015
Thursday's Result :
4.05 Chelmsford : Fable of Arachne @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 3f out, effort over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, held when not much room close home, beaten by a length)
Friday's selection runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Monbeg Gold @ 9/2 BOG
1. Monbeg Gold is a lightly raced 5 yr old gelding who is clearly on the rise and comes here seeking a 38-day hat-trick after back to back wins over 2m7f on soft ground at Exeter, suggesting he'll handle conditions well enough here today.
He was a winner by 5 lengths 38 days ago beating a couple of subsequent winners and followed that up with an 18 lengths rout 8 days later, despite being eased right down in the closing stages.
Today's jockey Richard Johnson was on board both times (2/2 together) and the only slight negative from those last two runs was a tendency to jump to the left on occasions, so a left handed track might help cut out some wasted yardage.
2. Richard Johnson has, of course, been a major beneficiary of the retirement of AP McCoy, picking up rides from Jonjo O'Neill this year that he'd never have been offered and he has repaid that faith by winning 23 times from just 70 rides (32.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 35.7pts at an ROI of 51%.
3. Since 2009, Jonjo's handicap hurdlers who were winners last time out in the past 30 days are 49 from 146 (33.6% SR) for 58.5pts (+40% ROI) profit, of which...
- those who last ran 16 to 30 days ago are 27/87 (31% SR) for 63.4pts (+72.9% ROI)
- those competing at trips of 2m7.5f to 3m2f are 17/51 (33.33% SR) for 45.5pts (+89.3% ROI)
- and those running at 2m7.5f to 3m2f, 16 to 30 days after their last run are 13/33 (39.4% SR) for 52.8pts (+160.1% ROI)
4. Since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle by 4 lengths or more last time out in the previous 3 to 60 days have won again on 263 of 1015 (25.9% SR) occasions producing level stakes profits of 232.3pts (+22.9% ROI), of which...
- those running at trips beyond 2m6f are 66/267 (24.7% SR) for 75.7pts (+28.4% ROI)
- Class 2 runners are 20/99 (20.2% SR) for 50.6pts (+51.1% ROI)
- runners at Cheltenham are 8 from 52 (15.4% SR) for 62pts (+119.3% ROI)
5. And following on from the general stat above, we can be more specific by looking those male handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners 3 to 60 days ago who fit a more strict set of rules, ie those aged 4 to 8, carrying 9-13 to 10-13 and rated (OR) 81 to 130.
These pop up as winners very often and since the start of 2012 they are 180/860 (20.9% SR) for 136.2pts (+15.8% ROI) profit and as you'd expect from 860 qualifiers, there are plenty of different angles to explore, but with the clock ticking, I'm just going to give you the following five...
- those priced at 10/1 or shorter are 173/712 (24.3% SR) for 148.3pts (+20.8% ROI)
- those who last ran 16 to 30 days ago are 78/404 (19.3% SR) for 120pts (+29.7% ROI)
- those carrying 10-11 to 10-13 are 62/288 (21.5% SR) for 59.3pts (+20.6% ROI)
- on good to soft ground they are 30/151 (19.9% SR) for 47.3pts (31.3% ROI)
- those trained by Jonjo O'Neill are 9/26 (34.6% SR) for 19.4pts (+74.7% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 10.10pm?
A 1pt win bet on Monbeg Gold @ 9/2 BOG with Hills BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, whilst Ladbrokes are matching that price, but won't go BOG until morning. However, to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS