Stat of the Day, 10th October 2013
As some of you may be aware, I've been quite ill of late and I'm likely to be spending the bulk of the day at the hospital for another barrage of tests like last Thursday, hence my absence this time last week!
So, I'm putting today's pick up early (1am!) in a slightly truncated format, but the background work has still been done, trust me!
Exceeder was disappointing yesterday, if truth be told and I hope to get back to winning ways in the...
Where I've backed Moorlands Jack at 5/2 with BetVictor, as this Jeremy Scott-trained chaser looks for a back to back C&D double following his success here 30 days ago.
Jeremy Scott has a great record in October. Blindly backing all his NH runners in October that were sent off at 12/1 or shorter has produced 15 winners from 40 (37.5% SR) to date for level stakes profits of 55.56pts (+138.9% ROI), not bad at all. Since 2010, that record is 10/26 (38.46% SR) for 36.87pts (+141.8% ROI) profit.
Jeremy's horses also go well over Worcester's obstacles with eight of his jumpers winning from twenty-seven attempts, the 29.63% strike rate yielding a profit of 23.46pts, or 86.89% of stakes. The figures for 2012/3 are 6/18 (33.33%) for 7.73pts (+42.94%), a reduced ROI, but still worth having.
Jeremy's jumpers at Worcester with a 6/1 odds cap have won 7 of 16 races (43.75% SR) for 14.92pts (+93.25% ROI) profit.
And last, but not least: Moorlands Jack is one of my "Back To Form" horses ie 3 or more consecutive unplaced runs followed by a win. The horse is then turned out in the next 30 days at odds of 6/1 or under and runs well again.
The stats for such NH horses for the 2010/13 period (large sample size) is 376 winners from 1371 races (27.43% SR) for modest, but acceptable profits of 108.1pts (+7.88% ROI). Those aren't earth-shattering profits, but you won't get that at a bank and a sample size fast approaching 1400 rules out any freak results.
2013's results are considerably better, though at 78/266 (29.32% SR) for an excellent return of 55.52pts (+20.87% ROI)
So, there's plenty of stats to back up our selection, but what of Moorlands Jack? Well, he's certainly no mug and scored comfortably here a month ago over C&D, winning by over 5 lengths with plenty in hand.
He has been raised 8lbs for that win, but jockey Matt Griffiths can take three of those off and to be honest, this horse was more than 8lbs better than those he beat last time out. Gud Day (also no mug at this level) was second that day and only got to within 5 lengths as our selection eased down, but Gud Day went on to win next time out off the same mark, whilst third placed Midnight Tuesday (another length further back) ran well enough to finish second at Huntingdon last Sunday.
As I said at the top, I'm on Moorlands Jack at 5/2 with BetVictor, but a host of other firms are offering the same price, so for your favourite bookie...
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