Stat of the Day, 10th October 2012

Stat of the Day 10/10

Stat of the Day 10/10

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2012

A gutsy run from Eamaadd yesterday who looked comfortable in the lead until around the 7 furlong mark, when Andrea Atzeni then had to get work to try and drive our mount home over the final two furlongs. Unfortunately, he was swamped by two faster finishers, losing the lead inside the final furlong and then losing 2nd position on the line.

Fortunately we'd taken 8/1 E/W about what was eventually a 7/2 shot, so the value was definitely there, as was a trading opportunity (traded as low as evens in play!). So it was a small 0.3pts profit on the race, but it's still 30% in 2 minutes and it's another placer for Roger Varian at Wolverhampton making 16/23!

We're not travelling far from Wolverhampton for today's contest, just 60 miles or so to the North East for a 13-runner (was 16!), 10-furlong Class 4 Handicap aka the...

4.30 Nottingham

Luca Cumani doesn't run many horses in handicap company at Nottingham, but when he does, the results are generally very good. Since May 2010, he has been represented by just 10 handicappers at this track and the results were 1412166221, a 40% win ratio generating 13.1pts profit at SP and a place strike rate of 80%: quite remarkable.

The last of those runs was a course and distance victory at 7/2 for today's selection Dulkashe.

Dulkashe's maiden form was pretty good, placing in each of her three races before improving to land a  fillies' handicap on her return to racing after a 7-month break  in May. She will have needed last month's reappearance (6th of 13 at Sandown) as a pipe-opener and should give a much better account of her self today.

She comes up against a very warm favourite in the shape of Sunpass, who is currently as low as 4/5 in places, but this race is no penalty kick for the favourite and the shortness of that price opens the door to some E/W value. This possible added value, allied to Luca's record of 8 places from 10 steers me towards an E/W bet today.

Having checked the market again, I'm happy to take on the favourite in the knowledge that we can get 11/1 BOG with Stan James, Ladbrokes and William Hill, so it's 0.5pts E/W today on Dulkashe at 11/1 BOG (12/1 non-BOG also available at Sporting Bet) but you can always...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.30 Nottingham.

PS Luca Cumani has another handicapper on the course today: Spring Tonic is generally a 4/1 shot in the 5.00 race, but this is an apprentice event, which aren't the most reliable of contests and I think I'd probably want a little more than 4/1 personally.

14 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 10th October 2012

  1. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Very good result Chris – nice return @ 12/1 on an e.w. bet BOG. You don’t always need to get winners – anyway where did the hot favorite come ?!? – behind your pick !!!

    Regards

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Seamus,
      BOG is simply Best Odds Guaranteed. Some bookies offer it, some don’t.
      But very simply: if I take 8/1 BOG and my horse wins at 4/1, I get paid at 8/1. If, however, my horse drifts to 12/1 and wins, I get paid at 12/1.
      So today, we took 11/1 E/W on Dulkashe, it was 3rd at 12/1 and our 1pt outlay returned 2pts, we double our money.
      Therefore, the BOG price is your worst case scenario: other than losing, of course! 😀
      But we try not to do that too often.

      Chris

  2. Johnny5

    Seamus

    Stick with this site fella – noone is promising that every bet is a winner but Chris and Matt have a track record as long as your arm with regards to the most important part of punting – profitability

    We all should be happier with a 12/1 third at 1/4 the odds rather than a 6/4 second

    However these guys on more than one occasion unearth winners at bigger prices than ‘just’ doubling your money as today

    Take the long term view and these boys intelligentsia’ will make it pay for you

    Good luck fella ‘

  3. Martin

    Any chance of explaining the offside rule in football , while you are busy picking winners for everyone. Great pick Chris. Look forward to tomorrows write up

  4. drumlin20Ivan

    Chris & Matt

    Have been following your tips for two months and am very impressed.Your record speaks for itself. Unfortunately I was out today and missed your tip. I think your approach to betting is the way to go and please continue to keep up the good work.

    Ivan

  5. Dunc

    Love stat of the day. Just wondered if there’s any chance selections could be put up the night before. You know how it is, work block gambling sites etc and don’t have an I phone to get my bet on. Realise it’s not always possible but just a thought.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Dunc,
      In theory it is possible for me to do SotD at night, but I choose not to for several reasons.
      Various factors come into play such as the lack of markets open for a race, the worry about going changes, non-runners or even meeting abandonments and also the desire to spend some time with my family in the evenings after racing has ended.

      We did try posting these the night before, but we were plagued by non-runners etc.

      Sorry,
      Chris

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