Stat of the Day, 10th November 2012
Good Morning Everyone, I'm back with you after spending the last fortnight basking (or baking!) in the Egyptian sunshine, but fear not: the UK has delivered me some instant karma by handing me a stinking cold.
I am, however, hoping for some warming cheer from the flat season's finale and the last fillies' listed event of the year as 13 runners do battle over 10 furlongs on Good ground (softer in parts) for a top prize of around £20,000 in the Betfred E.B.F. Gillies Fillies' Stakes, better known to us as the...
David Lanigan has an excellent record at Doncaster, considering he doesn't send many runners there. The excellent results he does achieve at the Town Moor track would tend to suggest a targeting of specific races and hopefully today fits that bill. To date, David has only been represented on fifteen occasions at the South Yorkshire course, but a strike rate of 40% via 6 winners has yielded a profit of some 15.3pts, equivalent to 102% of your stakes. With a further four of the nine non-winners also making the frame, an overall place strike rate of 67% lends itself readily to an Each Way prospect too.
His record over the last couple of years here is just as impressive, if not better. Three winners from six and a further second place finish replicated that 67% place strike rate and the 50% winning ratio generated a fantastic 9.7pts profit to boot (almost 162% of stakes!)
Having a great record here won't count for much though, if he doesn't have a horse suitable for today's task, but his sole entrant today is a decent sort who comes into today's contest in good nick. We're looking at Dorcas Lane today, a really consistent filly whose formline of 122133622 shows that she's only failed to make the first three home once in 9 attempts. She is a very useful filly and those last two runner-up results were both in Listed events at Newmarket, the latest of which was over this trip last month and on that form, she should have a decent chance once again. She only went down by a head that day and was still running on at the finish.
The form of the previous second place finish to Hazel Lavery has been backed up by that winner taking a Group 3 contest at Newbury a fortnight ago.
She does, however, come up against a fairly warm favourite today in the shape of Sajjhaa, who is likely to go off at a price of less than 6/4, which means there's some leeway for us to take an E/W shot and based on her own place strike rate and that of her trainer David Lanigan here at Doncaster, that does seem a prudent option for us consider.
Having checked the markets at 10am, 9/1 BOG was widely available and with 1/4 odds on offer for the place, my play today is 0.5pts E/W at 9/1 BOG on Dorcas Lane. I've gone with bet365, because I've still got some money in that account, but the 9/1 is there with at least eight other firms, so be sure to...