Stat of the Day, 10th June 2014
We were "done" late on by a neck at Windsor on Monday evening as Tom Queally was unable to keep Red Warrior running on anything like a straight line to the finish. Whether it made any difference is arguable at best, but the bottom line is that having led inside the final furlong, our 5/1 shot (6/1 BOG) was collared.
Fair play to those of you who took the E/W option and made a small profit, but for me it's a point dropped. Mind you, being a Bolton fan, I'm used to dropping points when a victory looked almost certain!
Hopefully, history won't repeat itself with Tuesday's selection, which runs in the...
Where Silvestre de Sousa will aim to maintain his recent good form aboard Saeed bin Suroor's handicap debutante Hidden Gold, who was a course and distance winner here at Salisbury on her racecourse debut 26 days ago and is currently best priced at 3/1 BOG to complete the double.
The trainer's horses are in fine form of late with a 24.6% strike rate (15 winners from 61) and an ROI of 23.3% (via 14.4pts profit) in the last two months and Saeed bin Suroor's horses are worth following here at Salisbury, even if there aren't many to follow! He has an overall record of 26 wins from 103 (25.2% SR) at the track which has produced modest profits of 14.33pts, or 13.9% of stakes. Better than a poke in the eye, I say.
And if you thought he didn't send many runners to this course, then his entrants in handicap events are almost as rare as hen's teeth. Just 24 runners in Salisbury handicaps, but a healthy 1-in-3 strike rate has been achieved, resulting in level stakes profits of 26.1pts (+108.8% ROI) from which there is a 7/15 (46.7% SR) record with handicap runners priced below 6/1: this has produced level stakes profits of 10.2pts, or 68% of stakes invested.
I mentioned that jockey Silvestre de Sousa was in good form earlier, and closer inspection shows him riding six winners from 22 in the last seven days and he'll come here fresher for having an unexpected day off on Monday, after his plans to ride at Pontefract were washed away.
He also has a decent enough record here at Salisbury, winning 5 of 21 races over the last 18 months: a 23.8% strike rate generating 30.4pts profit for an ROI of 144.7% with a 4/11 (36.4% SR) record with horses priced at 6/1 or shorter for 15.44pts (+ 140.4% ROI), and the record in handicaps is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 23.35pts (+212.3% SR)
Saeed bin Suroor is also one of the best at getting his horses to win a handicap race at the first time of asking, particularly in these mid-grade contests, such as today. Over the last six seasons in handicap races at Classes 2 to 5 inclusive, his debutants have won 36 of the 114 races in which they were sent off at an SP of 12/1 or less. This represents a 31.6% strike rate and has been instrumental in registering level stakes profits of 72.8pts (+63.9% ROI).
If we apply a 6/1 odds cap to these runners, we lose 26% of the original subset of horses, but we only relinquish 11.1% of the winners, leaving us with a record of 32 winners from 84 runners (38.1% SR) and level stakes profits of 53.5pts (+63.7% ROI).
Hidden Gold comes here defending a 1 from 1 record gained with a C&D win at this very track 26 days ago and former Salisbury C&D winners returning to the course on the back of a win (achieved anywhere!) last time out have won 6 of 18 races on their return when sent off at odds of 10/1 or shorter. It is admittedly a small sample size, but a 33.33% strike rate is excellent, as are the 14.12pts (+78.4% ROI) profits achieved and if nothing else, it will serve to reinforce the earlier stats.
Hidden Gold comes from an impressive bloodline, being related to the likes of See The Stars and Galileo, so you'd be excused for expecting her to have some ability and she won well here on debut. She did run green when in front, but when for a little bit more to put the race to bed, she duly responded and seemed to have plenty in hand, had it been required.
I'd expect her to improve for having had the experience of that run and it can't do her any harm at all to be turned back out into virtually identical conditions to that debut outing. She seems to be on a very workable mark for her first tilt at a handicap and I'm confident that she'll do the business for us, Messrs de Sousa & bin Suroor and the whole Godolphin outfit.
So, with all this in mind, I'm more than happy to place a 1pt win bet on Hidden Gold at 3/1 BOG with Coral. A handful of bookies are currently offering the same price, as you'll see if you just...
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