Stat of the Day, 10th January 2015
Despite the stats suggesting Gores Island would run well, just 4 days after his win last time out, it didn't quite pan out that way. The punters liked him, backing him in from our advised 100/30 down to 15/8, meaning that at 178% of SP, we'd really got a value play but that's as good as it got.
Don't get me wrong here, he ran his race well enough, he jumped brilliantly and travelled really well until the business end of the race. Unfortunately he found very little late on when required and finished 3rd overall. Perhaps the race came too soon for him after all, perhaps it was the step back up in trip / class. I suspect it was a combination of all three.
No complaints from me though, as a 28% strike rate long-term for SotD means that 5 out of every 7 selections lose, I'm only disgruntled when I don't think I've had a run for my money! And I can't level that accusation at Team Reveley nor Gores Island here. It does, however, mean I'm still winless from three picks this week, a fact I aim to remedy in Saturday's...
And a rather generous looking (to me, anyway!) 6/1 BOG bet on the 10yr old chaser Firth of the Clyde, who will be ridden by his usual jockey over fences, the relatively in-form (4/21 in the last week) Brian Hughes.
This horse is trained by Malcolm Jefferson...
Who has a good record with his handicap chasers over the last four years, as can be broken down as follows...
All runners : 42/235 (17.9% SR) for 166.7pts (+70.9% ROI)
Ridden by Brian Hughes : 17/95 (17.9% SR) for 20.9pts (+22% ROI)
Racing over 2m/2m0.5f : 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 39.9pts (+99.7% ROI)
Competed here at Wetherby : 5/27 (18.5% SR) for 50.1pts (+185.5% ROI)
Obviously those stats are all very impressive and can also be permed to good effect, but this does dilute the sample size somewhat and the numbers may or may not be skewed by some big priced winners affecting P/L and ROI or maybe some shorties bumping up the SR, so we'll look at a simple 11/4 to 9/1 odds filter (11/4 is as low as I like to go where possible for SotD and 9/1 allows for any drift!) , giving us the following...
All runners : 26/123 (21.1% SR) for 49.6pts (+40.3% ROI)
Ridden by Brian Hughes : 10/49 (20.4% SR) for 19.3pts (+39.5% ROI)
Racing over 2m/2m0.5f : 6/18 (33.33% SR) for 13.5pts (+75% ROI)
Competed here at Wetherby : 3/17 (17.7% SR) for 4.9pts (+28.8% ROI)
Which again are excellent figures, which are also able to be permed together at more realistic betting odds.
The horse steps up a class today...
And in the last five years, Malcolm has already stepped 154 horses up in class in NH handicap races, scoring on 27 (17.5% SR) occasions and netting 174pts (+113% ROI) profits from 1pt level stakes bets. Nice work if you were on those!
Those moving up 1 class are 23/120 (19.2% SR) for an excellent 129.9pts (+108.3% ROI) profit, of which chasers accounted for 14 wins from 68 (20.6% SR), generating 64.1pts (+94.3% ROI) profit.
Doubling your money is always a good stat to find, but it is often achieved by a random big priced winner, but we can look at those chasers who ran at odds of 7/2 to 9/1 (which is surely where we'll be today) and see that there's no slant on the figures at all. In fact the numbers look better in this odds range with 11 winners from 36 (30.6% SR) producing 41.1pts (+114.2% ROI).
Firth of the Clyde has already proved to be a better chaser than he was over hurdles and after just seven efforts over fences, he's still not fully exposed and has been remarkably consistent, with finishes of 2113023 to his name. The "duck egg" was no real disgrace either, as he finished 10th of 23 in a Grade 3 contest at Cheltenham 10 months ago, which represented a major hike in class for him and this is far easier than that race.
He was only beaten by a length and a half last time out, three weeks ago at Newcastle, where it is felt he didn't quite see out 2m4f and that he'll be far happier dropping back in trip today. He gets to run off the same mark of 135 as last time, so that will ensure he's competitive again.
He has a win and a place from three starts here at Wetherby, he has a win and three places from five runs on good to soft and copes well with soft & heavy ground too, should conditions take a turn for the worse. He also has one win and four placed finishes from five efforts at 2m/2m 0.5f.
Today is the second time he's raced in January, after winning on my birthday at Market Rasen last year and he's 1/1 over course and distance.
When you add up all the "evidence" above, you might initially also be surprised that Firth of the Clyde is a 6/1 shot, but the presence of Gardefort (who'll go off quite short) is keeping the rest of the field at artificially high prices. Both Gardefort and second favourite Bold Henry are possibly/probably better horses than ours, but the best horse doesn't always win.
Bold Henry runs off 135 today, a mark he was raised 10lbs to last time out and he really struggled off that mark, so I'm happy to overlook him, whilst I'm really not sure that Gardefort represents any value at 2/1 BOG or even shorter later. Yes, he won easily/comfortably last time out, but he's up 11lbs for that win and I'm not convinced about his jumping and in chases, you've got to be able to jump!
And with no disrespect to his jockey, Alain Cawley, he's not of the standard you'd usually see on a short-priced Venetia Williams favourite.
All of which means we can grab some value in the shape of a 1pt win bet on Firth of the Clyde at 6/1 BOG today. At those odds, you'd be forgiven for taking he cautious E/W approach, but I won't, because there's 8 set to run here and 1 non-runner not only impacts the odds via a Rule 4 deduction, it will also reduce the number of places paid. In an 8-runner race, you need to beat 62.5% of the field to get a place payout, you have to beat 71.4% of a 7-runner field.
But, as I have a tendency to do, I'm digressing again. Back to the job in hand, I'm placing my 6/1 BOG bet with BetVictor, but seeing as at least 6 firms are offering this price, you'd be well advised to...
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