Stat of the Day, 10th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2014

A gutsy, battling performance from Maakirr got us back on the winning trail yesterday at an advised 7/2 (SP was only 2/1!). He took the lead inside the final furlong, but the game looked to be over when Grace Hull drew level with him.

Yet, he managed to find a little bit more from somewhere to get home by just a neck, despite conceding 12lbs to the challenger.

More A/W action today, as we head to Surrey for the...

2.00 Lingfield:

Where the consistent (1323 in his last four races) Olivers Mount will attempt to get himself back into the winners' enclosure in this Class 6, 10f Handicap, where he's currently priced at 9/2 BOG (BetVictor) to avenge a narrow defeat here just two days ago...

1. In the past, it has proven profitable to back horses who have made the frame without winning in each of their last three races (ie finished 2nd or 3rd on 3 consecutive occasions). If we consider Class 5 & 6, All-Weather handicaps over distances of 6 furlongs to 11 furlongs: horses sent off in the general SotD price range (ie 13/8 to 5/1) won 34 of 107 races in 2012 & 2013. That's a strike rate of 31.8% producing level stakes profits of 55.2pts for an ROI of 51.6%

Olivers Mount was only beaten here at Lingfield by just about a length two days ago, when finishing third...

2. Males running on the All-Weather in January who finished in the first six home, but within 5 lengths of the winner also had a decent record in 2012 and 2013. When they were turned out again within 4 days of that defeat, they were successful in 21 of 75 races (28% SR) for 61.4pts (+81.9% ROI) at all odds.

When sent off between 5/2 and 8/1 (where we'll probably be today!) the record was 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 24.9pts profit, equivalent to 55.4%ROI.

Our selection gets to have another crack here today off the same mark as his recent narrow defeat and the way he has stayed on in his last two races suggests he'll prefer the extra two furlongs today. After all his win four starts ago was over 9.5f at Wolverhampton. He's currently trading longer than I expected and I'm happy to place a 1pt win bet on Olivers Mount at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor, but please take the opportunity to...

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2 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 10th January 2014

  1. Blokeshead

    Great job yesterday, Chris. I was actually on Grace Hull as well (alas, I’d only put 0.25 of a point on the reverse forecast), so the finish was rather pleasant.

    I forgot to put a similar amount on the treble with your SotD and Double Dutch picks again, for which I’m kicking myself yet again, but at least the DD “only” came in at about 14/1, not around 40/1!

    Good Luck today!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Thanks Stuart,
      This week has been a good reminder for all of us about the “peaks and troughs” of gambling. Had a couple of blank days across both blogs followed by a treble. The bottom line, I supposes is that both are in profit!


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