Stat of the Day, 10th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 10/1/13

Stat of the Day: 10/1/13

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2013

It was a rare day yesterday, as it's not often that James Ewart leaves Doncaster empty-handed. Unfortunately for him and us, of course, that's exactly what happened! Neither Civil Unrest (PU) nor our pick Vosges (5th) even made the frame. Vosges led for much of his race, but weakened badly approaching the penultimate fence and eventually finished 22 lengths away from the places and a further 4.5 lengths off the eventual winner.

We'll leave the sodden turf alone today and head down South to Sunbury for an evening spin on the Polytrack, where we've a model of consistency waiting for us in a Class 4, one-mile handicap where seven runners are set to tackle the...

6.45 Kempton

Our pick today is purely down to the consistency of the horse allied to a relatively new flourishing partnership with his jockey.

Today's race is for horses aged four and above and our selection Red Somerset is the grandaddy of the pack at the ripe old age of 10, but he appears to have found a new lease of life in the last year. Prior to 2012, he'd had a reasonable but unspectacular A/W career, gaining 8 wins from 42 contests (19%), but generating a loss at SP of over 5pts, whilst his A/W place strike rate was just over 40% courtesy of 17 placed finished from those 42 races.

However, on January 18th 2012, Kieran O'Neill rode him for the very first time, finishing 3rd over course and distance. That was Red Somerset's first run of the year and he eventually ran ten times in total during 2012. Kieran O'Neill retained the ride after that first outing and together their record in those 10 outings last year read 3211121122. They never failed to make the first three home last year and will look to extend that sequence in their first run of 2013.

5 wins from 10 last year rewarded Red Somerset's followers with a profit of 9.94pts, whilst E/W backers managed to collect after every race to the overall tune of 19.47pts.Of those ten outings together, two took place here at Kempton resulting in a 2nd place and a 3rd place finish, taking Red Somersets record to three wins and five further places from fourteen outings over course & distance, where E/W backers have made a very useful 18pts.

Red Somerset is, of course trained by Mike Murphy who despite not having the best record at Kempton with his other horses, did train the winner of this very race in 2012 as Sunset Kitty took the honours.

It's an open-looking contest today, so the safe bet is an E/W play and I've taken 13.0 for the win and 5.0 for a place on betfair, but I realise there might not be enough liquidity there to count as an official advice, so the SotD bet today is 0.5pts E/W on Red Somerset at 9/1 BOG with Boylesports (William Hill have the same price on offer). I wouldn't be at all surprised if this price doesn't constrict by a couple of points during the day, so to keep an eye on the other firms' prices, you really should...

Click here for the latest betting on the 6.45 Kempton

 

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 10th January 2013

  1. Johnny5

    Chris – 02:18 in the morning this was posted !?!

    Hope you have a robot / betbot or something similar to place these on the site for u at that time of night !

    Looks a well interesting stat ! Shame not the runners to go ew properly (first two tight)

    I think the price may lengthen as already the first two in the market are being backed

    Good luck all the same and thanks – looks a well opportunistic stat on form

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Johnny,

      I generally get to bed around the 0200 to 0230 mark and I’m up again by 0730!
      The race itself is a pretty open affair and it might develop into something of a tactical battle.

      Chris

  2. Richard

    Out of 4 races at Kempton Buckland has placed twice.Nicole Nordblad has a 17% S/R and a £52.75 profit to £1 stakes.Trainer Hans Adielsson has a 12% S/R and a £42.25 profit to £1 stakes.Being a hold up horse Buckland needs a good pace and a bit of luck in running.He is value at 14/1 and trading as low as 10/1.

  3. Johnny5

    Margaret Thatcher ran the country on 5 hours sleep Chris – and you’re doing a good job (w Matt) running SotD on the same !

    So far I am wrong – Red Somerset backed into 7/1 In most places …

    Good luck for today

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