Friday's Result :
4.45 Chelmsford : Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Tracked leader, driven to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace approaching final furlong...
We end another successful week with Saturday's...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG
A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £4,549 to the winner...
This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m in his final Point to Point race before starting his career under rules with three straight wins, all at 2m/2m0.5f on soft or heavy at Class 4 under today's jockey Harry Bannister.
So although his effort for a 4-timer is also a handicap debut, he should at least be accustomed to the race conditions.
His trainer, Harry Whittington, is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 12.12pts (+48.5% ROI) with handicap debutants and these include...
- 21-150 days since last run : 7/20 (35%) for 17.12pts (+85.6%)
- over hurdles : 4/18 (22.2%) for 1.09pts (+6%)
- at Class 4 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.88pts (+32%)
- on soft/heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 3.14pts (+62.8%)
- LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.55pts (+318.2%)
That stat re: LTO winners isn't really a surprise, as Harry's LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 11.46pts (+81.8% ROI) in handicaps just since the start of 2017!
And, since 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, horses who won a Novice hurdle last time out in the previous 90 days, went on to score again on 162 of 893 (18.1%) for 146pts (+16.4%), including...
- on handicap debut : 66/361 (18.3%) for 78.44pts (+21.7%)
- 31-90 dslr : 54/304 (17.8%) for 95.04pts (+31.3%)
- on soft ground : 40/226 (17.7%) for 40.1pts (+17.7%)
- and here at Warwick : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.54pts (+45.8%)
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!