Stat of the Day, 10th December 2019

Monday's pick was...

1.15 Musselburgh : Castletown @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders in 5th, pushed along and outpaced after 12th, never on terms after : ran like a pig if truth be told)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Apprentice Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner.

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has been a model of consistency since switching to Karen McLintock's yard last year, winning all five starts for his new handler, including of relevance today...

  • 4/4 this year
  • 4/4 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 4/4 in handicaps
  • 3/3 on A/W, all on tapeta
  • 1/1 at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 at Class 5

In addition to the above, he has also landed a Class 4 hurdle over 2m4f for Karen McLintock, proving that stamina shouldn't be an issue.

Sean Davis rides him for the first time and whilst his own career stats of 88/1408 (6.25% SR) for a loss of 367.3pts (-26.1% ROI) aren't exactly inspiring, he is actually 5 from 31 (16.1% SR) for 74.67pts (+240.9% ROI) profit here at Wolverhampton at an A/E of 1.77 and these numbers include 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.67pts (+151.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

Trainer Karen McLintock comes here after hitting 3 winners from 11 over the past fortnight, including 2 from 5 here at Wolverhampton, where longer-term her runners are 9/25 (36% SR) for 20.62pts (+82.5% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 9/15 (60%) for 30.62pts (+204.1%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 24.7pts (+130%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 16.92pts (+76.9%) in handicaps
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.41pts (+212.8%) from 5 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.26pts (+147.8%) with her only runner at the track that day
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 17.82pts (+297%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.55pts (+165.5%) at Class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.21pts (+180.2%) with her only runner of the day
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 1.97pts (+98.5%) over this 2m0.5f course and distance...

...and when she has been represented by a sole 5 yr old handicapper sent off at 8/1 and shorter in a field of 9-13 runners, she has 5 wins from 5 (100% SR) for 22.26pts (+445.2% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG  as was offered by Bet365, whilst Hills & Sky Bet (both non-BOG until raceday) were slightly longer/shorter respectively at 4.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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