Stat of the Day, 10th December 2015
Wednesday's Result :
1.35 Leicester : Chicoria @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/2 (Prominent, jumped slowly 3rd, soon lost place, jumped left and behind 6th, tailed off when pulled up before 4 out)
Thursday's selection runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Fable of Arachne @ 5/1 BOG
Fable of Arachne was a course and distance winner on her last outing 28 days ago, when she stayed on well to win, looking like she still had more to give. That was her first crack at 7f on the A/W, where she now has a record of 2 wins and a runner-up finish from just four starts, all at today's Class 6 level and she's 2 from 3 here at Chelmsford.
Today's jockey Graham Gibbons also has a 1 from 1 record with her, acquired via that C&D triumph four days ago and Fable of Arachne is trained by Stuart Williams, who does pretty well in A/W handicaps, having notched up 125 winners from 719 (17.4% SR) runners since the start of 2008 with the resultant 81.1pts level stakes profits equating to an 11.3% return on stakes, but by narrowing down the large dataset, we can improve those figures as follows...
- over trips of 5f to 1m : 110/583 (18.9% SR) for 107.5pts (+18.4% ROI)
- Class 5/6 : 98/531 (18.5% SR) for 86.5pts (+16.3% ROI)
- at 5/2 to 14/1 : 91/512 (17.8% SR) for 157.4 pts (+30.7% ROI)
- in races of 9 to 13 runners : 83/495 (16.8% SR) for 102.6pts (+20.7% ROI)
- running 16 to 60 days after their last outing : 57/362 (15.8% SR) for 55.5pts (+15.3% ROI)
- rated (OR) 49 to 64 : 68/325 (20.9% SR) for 105.7pts (+32.5% ROI)
- over the last three years : 53/289 (18.3% SR) for 78.4pts (+27.1% ROI)
- here at Chelmsford : 11/68 (16.2% SR) for 12.7pts (+18.7% ROI)
- with Graham Gibbons in the saddle : 2/9 (22.2% SR) for 16.9pts (+187.6% ROI)
AND... since the start of 2009, Stuart Williams' runners in class 5 to 7 A/W handicaps, over 5f to a mile, in fields of 7 to 13 runners, at odds of 5/2 to 16/1, when rated (OR) 49 to 66, running 4 to 120 days after their last run are 43 from 150 (28/7% SR) for profits of 196.8pts (+131.2% ROI), an angle that has made profit in each of the last 7 years, with LTO winners priced at 7/1 or shorter winning 5 of 12 (41.7% SR) for 19.9pts (+165.8% ROI).
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 6.00pm?
A 1pt win bet on Fable of Arachne @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by both Bet365 & BetVictor, whilst to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS