Stat of the Day: 10th December 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2012

When it's not running for you, it's not running for you. SotD is no more immune to runs of misfortune than anyone else, and yesterday typified its recent luck. 11/2 nominee, Greywell Boy, was backed in to 4/1 favouritism and ran a fine race... but could only finish second. In what is becoming time honoured tradition, the other mentioned horse, George Nympton, obliged - at a good enough 3/1.

But that's the past, and we're concerned now only with the future. A change of chair as Chris takes some time out, and I hop back into the driving seat. And today, I'm driving 'back to the future' for a horse which has featured here before, in the…

1.50 Musselburgh

They race at Musselburgh, and the going is good to soft, which is the first time for a while I've seen the word 'good' in the going description anywhere. Kate Walton is a lady who fares pretty well at the outer Edinburgh track, and her overall figures are five winners from 25 runners in recent seasons.

Those winners were worth a profit of 13 units. But, it must be said, four of that quintet of victories were provided by a single horse, Everaard.

Luckily for us (I hope!), Everaard lines up here, and there are plenty of reasons to be hopeful. Despite recent figures of 7PP877, Everaard looks to be very well suited by today's race conditions.

For instance, this is a three mile half a furlong handicap hurdle, class five. Everaard has won three of his four races here over this distance (the other being a handicap chase over 110 yards less). He's won all of his three hurdle races here in handicaps, and they were in Class 4 twice, and Class 3 once. Today he drops down to the basement, and a Class 5 event.

Everaard must have ground with 'good' in the description, as all of his five career wins (four NH, one flat) have done. Today, the going is good to soft. His form over the course and distance here is 13117. The '3' in that sequence came in this race last year, and he might have been closer than six lengths adrift of the winner had he not bungled the third last.

It's fair to say that Everaard has not been in good form lately, as evidenced by the 7's and P's on his score card. But a return to optimal conditions should see him return to competitiveness, and he's a handy seven pounds lower than his last win, which was off a mark of 107.

Everaard is currently trading at 15/2 with Paddy Power, and that looks fair about a horse with plenty of things in his favour today. He might like it a bit quicker ideally, but he couldn't have asked for any more elements to align for him, and I suggest a brave win only wager (though you may choose to bet each way yourself!). As ever, you can…

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.50 Musselburgh

10 thoughts on “Stat of the Day: 10th December 2012

  1. Martin G

    With fourteen other runners i have gone with an each way bet on this one Matt Sticking with the five trainers to follow and as you probably know there have been some very nice winners, cheers Matt.

  2. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Hi Chris – With reference to your post yesterday, you are too modest – you provide a brilliant service on SotD you must research late into the night to keep us provided with quality selection. Choosing to back the 2nd horse selection with SotD is like hitting a provisional off the tee – it always goes straight !!!
    Good on you.

  3. oneman

    Think i might be going wrong with the weights somewhere so please correct me. Was the last win not 10-0 and todays weight 11-12 thats a big 28lbs + from last win????

    E/W for me today. Thanks
    Good luck.

  4. martin (@smeemartin)

    oneman, due to the different conditions of the races the weights will vary, the thing to be looking for is his official rating which today is 100, on his last win over hurdles it was (105 according to the Sporting Life ^^) or 107 in the Racing Post ,it means that he is carrying 7lb’s less than his last win…..he only has more physical weight to carry because of the race being much weaker ( class 5 ) ..

    1. oneman

      Thanks for that Martin. They do not make things easy for us punters, do they. I am sure the horse will not know its official rating but will notice the diff in the physical weight though.

      Thanks Again.

    1. oneman

      I am sure we are all looking forward to SOTD and Trainer trends along with Well I Declare tomorrow. What more could we ask for!!!

      ( can i ask for more please? or is that too much!) Can you imagine what would happen is all 1/2/3/4/??? of you made a move and together all at one time! synchronicity would work? !!!!!!!!!!!!! ( I can only guess at this, and think the site might collapse!) I know Matt has been through bigger things with this site in the beginning ( so look and see !) so no need for any more negatives posts.With the star rating thing? I have only just used it, in the past few days and i am still not sure what it’s for or gains for everyone ???? only tried 3 times and hit 7/8 accidentally once in trying? How does that prove anything?? ( find myself getting angry over this needless point so will stop.( hate this) ) STOP IT NOW!!! NO NEED.

      Has any one looked at the info on offer on this site ( and used it??? ) Then done any research to back it up? a spread sheet on the profit and loss and conditions for this year??? ( made a big diff with Trainer stats, for a plus) . Just look and all connected with this site will give it to you for free.

      ( thanks. i know you others are there. just thought i would ask another opinion? )

      Enjoy it like we do.

      Sorry to those that do reply ( i am probably just having a rant and had enough! NO NEED FOR THIS. I know you have replayed and take every thing into account so pleases let me off)

      Great stuff once again and nice to have that friendly atmosphere back. Let’s keep it that way.

  5. ONEMAN

    Thanks Martin and Matt.You know too much and i can’t get my head round it? I’m SAT DOING THE MIDNIGHT OIL ? AGAIN Tonight and just ask. How do you do it? i know i am doing this for another two. hours and when i start putting 2 instead of tgweo. ( sorry two 2)its time for rest.

    I learnt a lot today thanks and it was all free.

    What can i say ( THANKS )

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