Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2015
Mister Rockandroll did nothing wrong on Saturday and virtually made all until basically running out of steam inside the final furlong.
He was weakening and wandering off a true line when the eventual winner cam up his inside and although Joe Fanning did his level best to get our runner back up again, we had to settle for second best.
The final margin of defeat was three parts of a length and Mister Rockandroll was sent off at 7/2, half a point shorter than advised.
Monday kicks off a new week with a crack at the...
And a 9/4 BOG wager on Tom Scudamore's ride, in this Class 4 handicap chase over 2m 1f on heavy ground, Nomadic Storm, a fairly lightly raced 9 yr old...
...who is trained by David Bridgwater...
...whose record over the last few years is excellent here at Plumpton. Since the start of 2011, 10 of his 43 runners (23.3% SR) at this track have been winners, generating level stakes profits of 6.9pts at a reasonable ROI of 16.1%. His runners priced at 6/1 or shorter are 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 10.7pts (+46.6% ROI), whilst his handicappers are 8.25 (32% SR) for 145pts (+58.2% ROI).
His runners in handicap chases have won an impressive 8 of 19 (42.1% SR) producing 20.5pts (+108.1% ROI) profit with those chasers priced at 9/2 or shorter winning 7 of 13 (53.8% SR) for 10.4pts (+80.% ROI) with a 2/4 for 1.72pts record on heavy ground.
...and David's horses seem to like the mud...
Since the start of 2014, David's heavy ground runners are 10/37 (27% SR) for 15.1pts (+40.8% ROI) profit, with his chasers accounting for most of the success, winning 8 of 20 races (40% SR) and making 16.5pts (+82.5% ROI) profit in the process.
Of the chasers on heavy ground, David's go-to jockey of late has been Tom Scudamore, who had ridden 5 winners from 7 Bridgwater heavy ground chasers for an impressive strike rate of 71.4% with commensurate profits of 20.8pts at an ROI of 297.1%!
Tom does tend to do well on David's horses, though...
...riding 39 winners from 188 attempts (20.7% SR) for 93.9pts (+49.9% ROI) profit. In handicap chases, those figures become 24/92 (26.1% SR) for 50.5pts (+54.9% ROI) with those priced at 6/1 or shorter winning 19 of 60 (31.7% SR) for 21.5pts (+35.8% ROI)
..and he has a good record here at Plumpton...
with 26 wins from 95 (27.4% SR) since the start of 2010 producing profits of 35.7pts at an ROI of 37.6%. Handicap chasers account for 10 wins from 26 (38.5% SR) and 11.7pts of the profit (+45.1% ROI).
13 of those chasers have, of course, been trained by David Bridgwater and Tom has 6 winners (46.2% SR) from them and 7.3pts (+56.1% ROI) profit and on those priced at 9/2 or shorter, the record is 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 9.3pts (+84.5% ROI).
For his part, Nomadic Storm was unplaced in 2 bumpers and five hurdle races for Graeme McPherson, before switching to the Bridgwater yard 10 months ago. David immediately decided he'd be a chaser and all five starts for his new yard have been over fences with finishes of 31213 revitalising this horse.
So, he's now 2/5 over fences (all ridden by Mr Scudamore) and that includes a 1/1 record on heavy ground. He has won over 2m and 2m 0.5f and was third on his only effort over today's 2m1f, but that was his chasing debut here over course and distance, so I'm not expecting track trip or conditions to be unsuitable today.
There might be doubts about him returning from a break of 259 days, though, and this is probably why he's not even shorter than 9/4 BOG. There is some comfort though, to those of you who might have some reservations about an 8.5 month absence, as it's not unusual for this yard to win with returners.
In fact, since 2010, David Bridgwater's record with chasers coming off the back of a break of 6 months or more is 9/40 (22.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+123% ROI) profit with an 8/24 (33.3% SR) record from those priced 10/1 or shorter, generating 25.3pts profit at an ROI of 105.4%.
Nomadic Storm is by no mean a shoo-in, but the deluge of stats supporting his case suggests that there could well be some value in a 1pt win bet at 9/4 BOG. This price is widely available and I've placed mine with Bet365, but you can see all the various odds when you...
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