Double Dutch, 12th January 2014
After drawing a complete blank on Friday it was good to see the 5/2-advised Grey Mirage hold on to score by a head. Unfortunately that effort was in vain for our double, as things had already gone pear-shaped an hour earlier.
The best we could manage at Kempton was 3rd and 5th in a 6-horse race, which isn't great.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Upazo: 3rd at 3/1 SP (adv 7/2)
The Liquidator: 5th of 6 at 11/8 SP! (adv 9/4)
Grey Mirage : won at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Galician : 5th of 6 at 2/1! (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
116 winning selections from 399 = 29.07%
36 winning doubles in 107 days = 33.64%
P/L : +12.93pts (+6.10% ROI)
We could do with a change in fortune from these today:
This could develop into an interesting battle between three of the five runners here, as Little Glenshee, Hidden Horizons and Phase Shift all have claims here. All I need to do is discard one of them!
Little Glenshee is currently the 7/4 BOG favourite with bet365 and she's proven over trip, going and track. She did, however, fall early on her last outing here a fortnight ago and I suppose there may be some doubt about her confidence being knocked, but I'm sure she'll have been jumping well at home before being sent out again. And in fairness, her jumping has been excellent prior to that last outing.
Hidden Horizons hails from the in-form Crawford team and she was 3rd on her chase debut last month. The trip shouldn't be an issue to her, as she was a winner over 3 miles at Hexham last year and the fact that she receives 11lbs from her two main rivals could well be the deciding factor in her bid to land this one at 2/1 BOG (PP, Boylesports).
Phase Shift is a consistent triple-code runner, but tends to be the bridesmaid more often than she'd like, as a record of just 3 wins from 31 would suggest. She has been placed in half of her races to date and stayed on well to finish 2nd (again!) last time out. That was over 2 miles at Catterick a fortnight ago and this step up of almost a mile to 2m 7.5f is a major concern for me. She's never run beyond 2m4f and her last effort at that trip was 9 months ago and she's been at the shorter end of trips in her seven races since.
The doubts over Phase Shift's ability to stay the trip today mean she's the one to be overlooked.
Diletta Tommasa comes here with a record of three wins from six over course and distance and should be fresh after a four-month break from racing. She was last seen when staying on to win here back in September, when she had Peters Friend the best part of two lengths behind her. That horse has gone on to win twice and place once from four runs since, so if she's race-ready, I expect her to be on the premises at 3/1 BOG (Betfred) running off a mark of 67, just 4lbs higher than her last win, but she has won off 66 in the past (last feb over C&D)
She won't have it all her own way, though, as Frost Fire drops back down to the level she's performed best at and is 3221 at this level on the all-weather. She has two decent runner-up efforts over course and distance before breaking her duck over a mile at Southwell a week before Christmas. Frost Fire looks the clear favourite at 13/8 BOG (Betfred), but I think it'll be a much closer contest than the bookies say.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Little Glenshee / Frost Fire @ 5.89/1 (Betfred 13/8 & 13/8)
Little Glenshee / Diletta Tommasa @ 9.50/1 (Betfred 13/8 & 3/1)
Hidden Horizons / Frost Fire @ 6.88/1 (PP 2/1 & 13/8)
Hidden Horizons / Diletta Tommasa @ 10.50/1 (Betfred 15/8 & 3/1)