Stat of the Day, 21st December 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Kempton : Gracious Tom @ 6/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 - Tracked leader, challenged 2f out, soon led, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, chased winner but well held inside final furlong, weakened and lost two places near finish

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Ludlow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danceintothelight @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 8 lengths last time out, that was 8 days ago under today's jockey making all at Catterick and similar tactics could well be at play today by a horse that has made the frame in each of his last five starts.

He's trained by Donald McCain, whose runners are in decent form, winning 6 of 30 (20% SR) in the last fortnight with his hurdlers winning 6 of 19 (31.^%) for profits of 22.46pts at an ROI of 118.2%.

And since the start of 2012, Donald's handicap hurdlers who won LTO, 1-30 days ago are 13/63 (20.6% SR) for 22.4pts (+35.6% ROI) with those last seen 6-25 days back winning 13 of 44 (29.5%) for 41.4pts (+94.1%).

In addition to the yard's own good numbers, over the last 5 yrs in UK NH handicap hurdle contests, males who won LTO by 4 or more lengths LTO 3-60 days ago are 330 from 1304 (25.3% SR) for 200.6pts (+15.4% ROI), of which...

  • those who won by 5 to 15 lengths LTO : 220/832 (26.4%) for 198pts (+23.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 129/420 (30.7%) for 84pts (+20%)
  • 4-10 days since last run : 148/398 (37.2%) for 83.7pts (+21%)
  • Class 5 winners LTO : 113/251 (32.2%) for 90.6pts (+25.8%)
  • 9/10 yr olds are 46/162 (28.4%) for 72.4pts (+44.7%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 8/20 940%) for 1.25pts (+6.25%)

AND...I've not given you a composite micro to store for a while, so how about... 4-10 yr old males / Class 4-5 hcp hurdles / 11-1 and shorter / 4-45 dslr / won hcp hrd by 5-15 L LTO? Backing these over the last 5yrs gives 130 winners from 348 (37.4% SR) and level stakes profits of some 176.8pts at an ROI of 50.8%.

...and...a 1pt win bet on Danceintothelight at 11/4 BOG which was available in at least four places (Bet365 preferred, BetVictor, Hills & Racebets at 7.05pm on Tuesday, whilst 5/2 BOG was widely on offer elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

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