Category Archives: Horse Racing Blog

SotD Update, 20th to 25th November 2017

A quick fire midweek double was very welcome here for a number of reasons this week. It got me off the cold list removing the monkey from my back, it finally converted the high percentage of placers into a couple of winners and probably most importantly it meant we had our first profitable week for a while.

Of, course the 3.25pts we made over the week only dents the prior November losses and it's still highly likely we'll make a loss on the month as a whole, but (i) it gave us a 54.1% return on stakes for the week and (ii) maintained my slim hopes of getting out of the month unscathed.

It's a tall order, but I think I'm going to need 3 winners next week. Is it likely to happen? NO. Am I going for it? HELL YEAH as our "friends" across the pond might say.

Selections & Results : 20/11/17 to 25/11/17 :

20/11 : Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG 6th at 15/8
21/11 : Short Work @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/2
22/11 : Roman Spinner @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/2
23/11 : Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG WON at 13/8
24/11 : Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 15/8
25/11 : Berryessa @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 6/4

20/11/17 to 25/11/17 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +3.25pts

November 2017:
3 winners from 21 = 14.29% SR
P/L: -8.35pts
ROI = -39.76%

2017 so far:
75 winners from 269 = 27.88% SR
P/L: +90.15pts
ROI = +33.51%

Overall:
515 winners from 1860 = 27.69% S.R
P/L: +464.87pts
ROI: +24.99%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 13th to 18th November 2017

OK, so a second 0 from 6 wipeout on the bounce was not the way we wanted to kick off SotD's 7th year, but that's what we got, I'm afraid. I don't believe in being overdramatic about weekly losses and I rarely crow about it when we've had a great one, as betting on racing is always a rollercoaster ride.

I would like to focus on the positives, of course, so here goes...

Despite no winners from 12 in the last fortnight since I got back from holiday (maybe I need another break, Matt?), 7 of the picks (58.3%) have made the frame with 5 of them (41.7%) finishing as runners-up. In fact, had yesterday's runner not been the latest to get chinned virtually on the line, the week would have broke even.

I think what I'm trying to say is that the picks aren't any better or worse than previously, we're just not getting the breaks/results we may have enjoyed previously.

That said, 2017 still performs at a higher strike rate and higher ROI than our overall 6 year average, so this is quite likely to be that correction in results/figures I spent much of the first 8 months of the warning you about!

Selections & Results : 13/11/17 to 18/11/17 :

13/11 : Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 4/1
14/11 : Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG PU at 11/2
15/11 : Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/1
16/11 : Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 9/4
17/11 : Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1
18/11 : Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1

13/11/17 to 18/11/17 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

November 2017:
1 winner from 15 = 6.66% SR
P/L: -11.60pts
ROI = -77.33%

2017 so far:
73 winners from 263 = 27.76% SR
P/L: +86.90pts
ROI = +33.04%

Overall:
513 winners from 1854 = 27.67% S.R
P/L: +461.62pts
ROI: +24.90%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 6th to 11th November 2017

Last week was certainly not the way I wanted to return from my holiday! We've been operating this particular service for six years now and it has produced decent profits at a steady rate with the inevitable peaks and troughs associated with gambling. The method of selection hasn't changed, neither has my approach, we're just on a downswing.

As for recent losses, I feel and share your pain, because unlike most commercial tipsters out there, I back every single one of my own selections with real money, so when you win I win and you lose I lose, but I'm still extremely confident the current cold spell will be broken soon and we'll start moving the numbers in the right direction again.

Selections & Results : 06/11/17 to 11/11/17 :

06/11 : Mab Dab @ 13/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1
07/11 : Jack of Diamonds @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4
08/11 : Swift Crusador 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/2
09/11 : Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 9/4
10/11 : Lady of Longstone @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4
11/11 : Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/4

06/11/17 to 11/11/17 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

November 2017:
1 winner from 9 = 11.11% SR
P/L: -5.60pts
ROI = -62.22%

2017 so far:
73 winners from 257 = 28.40% SR
P/L: +92.90pts
ROI = +36.15%

Overall:
513 winners from 1848 = 27.76% S.R
P/L: +467.62pts
ROI: +25.30%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 23rd October to 4th November

A fortnightly roundup, as I was out of the country last Sunday and have in fact only just (3.30pm) been home half an hour!

My final seven selections of the month before my break yielded no winners at all, leaving my trusted colleague and friend Steve (of RotD fame) to (a) step into the breech proving that SotD is a team effort and (b) rescue October from failing to make profit!

Thankfully, Mr Oliver was able to oblige on both counts, proving a 4/1 Hallowe'en winner to ensure we just about got out in front for October and he followed that up with another winner yesterday to ensure that I resume hostilities with the bookmakers already slightly ahead for November.

Selections & Results : 23/10/17 to 04/11/17 :

23/10 : Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 4/1
24/10 : Eddy @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1
25/10 : Pickamix 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1
26/10 : Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG PU at 9/2
27/10 : Executive Force @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 11/2
28/10 : May Remain @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 7/2

30/10 : Riviera Sun @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 9/2
31/10 : Ebitda @ 10/3 BOG WON at 4/1
--------------------------------------------------------------
01/11 : Finale @ 10/3 BOG N/R
02/11 : Watersmeet @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 9/4
03/11 : Breden @ 12/1 BOG 4th at 12/1
04/11 : Yellowhammer @ 3/1 BOG (2.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 2/1

23/10/17 to 04/11/17 :
2 winning bets from 11 = 18.18% SR
P/L: -2.60pts

October 2017:
6 winners from 26 = 27.78% SR
P/L: +0.66pts
ROI = +2.54%

November 2017:
1 winner from 3 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +0.4pts
ROI = +13.33%

2017 so far:
73 winners from 251 = 29.08% SR
P/L: +98.90pts
ROI = +39.40%

Overall:
513 winners from 1842 = 27.85% S.R
P/L: +473.62pts
ROI: +25.71%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 19th to 24th October 2015

Stat of the Day Update: 19/10/15 to 24/10/15

October continues to be tough / attritional / frustrating (or add your own weathered cliché here), but winners on Tuesday and Thursday ensured a profit on the week and puts us in a position where just one more winner is needed over the next six picks to guarantee profitability for the month.

From my experience of reviewing other services, I know just how this particular is and despite the ups and downs of late, we're very handily placed to record a successful October for the third year in a row.

Selections & Results: 19/10/15 to 24/10/15

19/10: Gone Too Far (adv 11/4 BOG) : 7th at 100/30
20/10: Musical Taste (adv 11/2 BOG) : WON at 9/4
21/10: Nice Future (adv 9/2 non-BOG) : 6th at 11/4
22/10: Slovak (adv 100/30 BOG) : WON at 9/4
23/10: Wheat Sheaf (adv 7/2 BOG) : 3rd at 11/2
24/10: What About Carlo (adv 8/1 E/W BOG) : 9th at 7/1

19/10/15 to 24/10/15 :
2 winning bets from 6
P/L: +4.83pts

October:
5 winners from 21 = 23.81% S.R.
P/L: +4.33pts
POI = +20.62%

Overall:
362 winners from 1245 = 29.08% S.R
P/L: +343.07pts
ROI: +27.56%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £5, 14-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 12th to 17th October 2015

Stat of the Day Update: 12/10/15 to 17/10/15

No winners to report from last week, but a string of results reading 424244 says we're not a million miles away though and we are reassured by the fact we're getting on fancied horses at decent prices ( we averaged 147% of SP last week), which is the key to long-term profitability.

Selections & Results: 12/10/15 to 17/10/15

12/10: Thames Knight (adv 7/1 BOG) : 4th at 9/2
13/10: Nomenklatura (adv 11/4 BOG) : 2nd at 3/1
14/10: Racing Europe (adv 7/1 BOG) : 4th at 11/4
15/10: Forgiving Glance (adv 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 5/2
16/10: Tangolan (adv 11/4 BOG) : 4th at 5/2
17/10: Forever My Friend (adv 3/1 BOG) : 4th at 11/4

12/10/15 to 17/10/15 :
0 winning bets from 6
P/L: -8.50pts

October:
3 winners from 15 = 20.00% S.R.
P/L: -0.50pts
POI = -3.33%

Overall:
359 winners from 1238 = 29.00% S.R
P/L: +326.24pts
ROI: +26.35%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +338.24pts from a 1239pt outlay = +27.30% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £5, 14-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2015

Saturday's Result :

4.55 Ffos Las : Forever My Friend @ 3/1 BOG : 4th at 11/4 jt fav (Chased leaders, mistake 11th, pushed along 6 out, never a threat and beaten by 17 lengths)

Monday's selection runs in the...

4.00 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gone Too Far at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Trainer Alan King has saddled up 34 winners from just 90 runners (37.8% SR) for 19.2pts (+21.3% ROI) of level stakes profits here at Plumpton since the start of 2008.

Those ridden by today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson are 14/28 (50% SR) for 16.5pts (+59% ROI) profit and those running in chases are equally impressive with 13 wins from 27 (48.2% SR) for 12pts profit at an ROI of 44.4% and those chasers ridden by Wayne Hutchinson are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 10.5pts (+262.3% ROI) with all four priced at 4/1 or shorter.

Wayne now rides a horse in form, that has won 2 of his last three starts over fences (all with Wayne in the saddle) taking the horse/jockey partnership to 3 wins from 6.

Gone Too Far has 3 wins and a place from five starts on good ground, he has 2 wins and a place from five runs at 2m3.5f/2m4f and he has won four times and been placed on five other occasions from the 10 races in which he has been sent off at odds below 9/2.

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Gone Too Far at 11/4 BOG with Coral. You can also get this price at Hills and BetVictor, so please...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2015

Another non-runner on Saturday (our third from my last seven picks!) means I've nothing to report on from the weekend, which is probably just as well, considering I'm running a tad late.

Monday looks tough from a stats perspective and low on quality to boot, but I'm hopeful of a decent run in the...

3.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a Class 6 handicap for 3yr olds and older and the trip is a mile and a half on reportedly good ground and a race in which I've taken 100/30 BOG about Clive Cox's 3yr old gelding Duc de Seville and I'll be hoping the Duke helps me out of a sticky patch today.

Now, Brighton racecourse is hardly the other end of the country from Clive Cox's base in Lambourn (it's miles from me, but that's irrelevant!), so there must be another reason why he doesn't send many runners here. And as well as it not being the travelling, it surely can't be down to a lack of success either.

In fact, the last 13 seasons (including this one) have seen just 35 runners from Clive's yard make their way onto this track, but 10 of them have been winners with that tremendous 28.6% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 33.6pts at an ROI of 96%.

So, Brighton hosts around 20 fixtures a season and Clive sends around 3 runners a year here, so it's no surprise to find out that Duc de Seville will be travelling here on his own, but sending just one runner to a track often pays dividends for Mr Cox and over the last three seasons, these solo entrants are 69/438 (15.8% SR) for 98.9pts (+22.6% ROI) profit and in respect of this race, those 438 runners are...

  • 42/275 (15.3% SR) for 91.2pts (+33.2% ROI) profit in handicaps
  • 84/138 (20.7% SR) for 109pts (+59.2% ROI) from 3yr olds
  • 6/35 (17.1% SR) for 8pts (+22.9% ROI) at Class 6
  • 5/17 (29.4% SR) for 12.6pts (+73.9% ROI) at this 1m4f trip
  • 3/6 (50% SR) for 15pts (+250% ROI) here at Brighton.

Of the above, 3yo handicappers at classes 4 to 6 inclusive are 24/111 (231.6% SR) for 97pts at an ROI of 87.4% with a 2 from 2 record here at Brighton and a record of 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 23.4pts (+78% ROI) in these 3yo+ open age handicaps where the 3yr olds get a weight for age allowance, 9lbs on this occasion.

Clive Cox does well in this type of race using the weight for age allowance and since 2009, his 3yr olds in 3yo+ handicaps over trips of up to 1m6f have won 32 of 226 (14.2% SR) starts, generating 104.5pts profit at an ROI of 46.2%.

I placed my 100/30 BOG bet on Duc de Seville with the Betfair Sportsbook, as they were the best on offer at 11pm on Sunday night. To check that's still the case, I urge you to...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day Update, 18th to 23rd August 2014

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 18/08/14 to 23/08/14

I found the last week very frustrating / difficult if truth be told, finding just one winner from my selections, despite only one runner not finishing in the frame.

Thankfully the winner was returned at 3/1, which helped with some damage limitation and with a bit more luck in running (especially on Saturday), I'd have somehow scraped a profit on the week, which would have pretty much guaranteed an overall surplus at the end of august, a month I've historically found difficult (SotD actually lost money last August!).

The silver lining to the recent hovering cloud is that we are continually beating SP by a long way and as you're probably sick of hearing me say, that WILL guarantee long term profits!

Selections & Results: 18/08/14 to 23/08/14

18/08: Cincuenta Pasos (adv 7/2 BOG) : 3rd at 6/4
19/08: Franklin Roosevelt (adv 3/1 BOG) : 3rd at 11/4
20/08: Captain George (adv 7/1 E/W BOG) : u/p (5th) at 6/1
21/08: Lysino (adv 4/1 BOG) : 3rd at 15/8
22/08: Arethusa (adv 11/4 BOG) : won at 3/1
23/08: Certificate (adv 21/8 BOG after a 25p R4) : 2nd at 15/8

19/08 to 23/08:
1 winning bet from 5
P/L: -2.00pts

August:
5 winners from 19 = 26.32% S.R.
P/L: +4.80pts
POI = +25.26%

Overall:
262 winners from 906 = 28.92% S.R
P/L: +215.55pts
ROI: +23.79%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +227.55pts from a 907pt outlay = +25.09% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your free 10-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day Update, 11th to 16th August 2014

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 11/08/14 to 16/08/14

Another good week for SotD last week with two winners and two others making the frame. The last couple of selections didn't fare as well as I'd hoped, but we still recorded a nice 4.13pts (+68.8% ROI) profit over the six days, pushing us closer to the point in the month where profitability is guaranteed. Another couple of winners should now be enough.

Despite losing on Saturday, Los Nadis became the 900th SotD runner and the recent run of good form has seen us hit an all-time high for both strike rate, profits and ROI, all of which can be seen further down the page. Both myself and Matt are very proud of our achievements to date on this one and we are constantly seeking ways to improve what is already a very successful service.

Selections & Results: 11/08/14 to 16/08/14

11/08: Medam (adv 100/30 BOG) : 2nd at 13/2
12/08: Ellaal (adv 5/2 BOG) : 3rd at 2/1
13/08: Got To Dream (adv 5/2 BOG, 17/8 after R4!) : won at 7/4
14/08: Last Echo (adv 6/1 BOG) : won at 11/4
15/08: Mad Endeavour (adv 9/2 BOG) : u/p at 9/2
16/08: Los Nadis (adv 7/2 BOG) : u/p at 4/1

11/08 to 16/08:
2 winning bets from 6
P/L: +4.13pts

August:
4 winners from 13 = 30.77% S.R.
P/L: +6.80pts
POI = +52.31%

Overall:
261 winners from 900 = 29.00% S.R
P/L: +217.55pts
ROI: +24.17%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +229.55pts from a 901pt outlay = +25.48% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your free 10-day trial now?

Click here for more details.