Category Archives: Free Racing Tips

Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2014

Jockey Mark Quinlan retired from racing after the meeting at Towcester two months ago, but he returned to action with a bang yesterday as he steered our selection Roc de Guye home to win cosily by six lengths.

He kept the horse handy throughout, until hitting the front going over the last fence before pulling away on the run-in. It was a great return to action for mark and it completed our four-timer, with the added bonus of a drift out to 100/30 from our advised 5/2 BOG.

I've found Tuesday pretty difficult and I've ended up with a judgment call between two runners with the same stats behind them, but the race I've eventually settled on is the...

5.20 Wetherby:

And Warren Greatrex's 4yr old debutant runner One Track Mind, who can currently be backed at a generally available 11/4 BOG in the first division of the bumper today.

1. In the period from 2010 to 2014, Warren's record in bumpers is excellent as figures of 27 winners from 124 runners will testify. This 21.8% strike rate at all odds has so far generated 85.3pts profits from level stakes, a return of 68.8% on your money.

If we were to do our usual 6/1 odds cap, the figures then become 18 winners from 59, a very healthy 30.5% SR for 28.6pts profit, with this year's figures being excellent at 6/10 for 15.7pts.

The yard is in great form with seven wins and five placers from eighteen runners in the last fortnight (5 wins, 3 places from 12 in the last seven days) and over the last month, his horses have won six of nine bumpers.

2. Mr Greatrex also has an excellent record of getting his horses to win at the first time of asking, especially his 4 and 5 yr olds. Over the last four years, that record stands at 15 winners from 52 debutants (28.8% SR) for 58.5pts profit (+112.5% ROI) and in bumpers those stats are improved to 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 68.5pts (+163% ROI)

With a 6/1 odds cap imposed again, these debutants are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 20.5pts (+76% ROI) with bumpers showing a 50% strike rate (11/22) and a 116% return on stakes via 25.5pts profit.

Warren has two such debutants today in the shape of our selection One Track Mind and also Ma De Fou who is a 5/2 shot in the 5.50 race. Both of them are aged just 4yrs old and as such they both fit the above stats.

3. In fact, I should add that the yard's 4 yr old debutants do better than the 5yr olds, but the sample size becomes considerably smaller, but for the record, here are the numbers...

On debut, all odds and races: 10/25 (40% SR) for 45.5pts (+182% ROI)
On debut in a bumper, all odds: 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 48.5pts (+220.5% ROI)
On debut, all races but 6/1 max SP: 7/14 (50% SR) for 13pts (+92.9% ROI)
On debut, bumpers and 6/1 cap: 7/13 (53.8% SR) for 14pts (+107.7% ROI)

Of his two runners today, I think Ma De Fou has more on his plate today, up against a McCoy-piloted LTO winner and although our selection One Track Mind is also up against a winner from last time out, I think this race is the weaker one and his main rival might have more of a struggle to carry on a penalty on faster ground than his victory.

I'll be backing both Greatrex runners today, but the official line is a 1pt win bet on One Track Mind at 11/4 BOG with Hills. Other bookies are, of course, available and you can see their prices when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st April 2014

Baileys Concerto was a pretty comfortable winner on Saturday to help us to a hat-trick of wins to close out the week before Easter. Our 5/2 BOG was quickly eroded by 10% down to 9/4 BOG, just a few minutes after I'd published the piece,but that still proved a decent price after he was returned at 7/4.

He tracked the leaders patiently whilst travelling best of the four runners, before taking the lead over the last fence. No stick or driving finish was required as he just eased himself into a six lengths lead on the run-in to maintain his trainer's excellent record in NH handicaps.

Easter Monday is tricky, due to the sheer number of runners/races, but I think we might have something in the...

2.55 Market Rasen:

As with Saturday, just four runners here, but a similarly priced 5/2 BOG shot looks to represent value, as I'm backing James Evans' 9 yr old chaser Roc de Guye, who comes here looking to extend a decent run of form (3111421 in the last 10 months!) and a rise in the weights will hopefully be partially negated by the presence of jockey Mark Quinlan and his 3lb claim.

1. Also, like Saturday, James Evans is another one of those trainers who consistently produces profits in NH handicap races and since 2010 he has a 19.7% strike rate in these contests.

That strike rate comes via a 26/132 record, which in turn has generated 85.6pts (+64.8% ROI) profits at level stakes and of which his chasers are 18/81 (22.22% SR) for 43.4pts (+53.6% ROI).

If we filter out some of the longer priced runners and impose an 8/1 odds cap, his handicappers as a whole have won 19 of 91 (20.9%) contests for profits of 31.6pts, a return of 34.7% of stakes, but at these lower odds, his chasers have excelled with 16 winners from 59. This 27.1% strike rate has been responsible for 43pts profit, or 72.9% of stakes.

2. Mr Evans doesn't use claiming jockeys very often, but seems to do pretty well with them on the few occasions that he calls upon them. In the last two years, the record is 4/21 for 12.32pts with runners below 12/1.

3. Roc de Guye is a useful performer at this level and is one to back when running on the back of a decent run last time out. Backing him after a top 3 finish last time out would have netted you 5 winners from 16 and 24.2pts profits from level stakes and all those five wins came from the thirteen races where that top three finish was preceded by a top five finish. He has finished 421 in his last three outings, so this stat was proved right last time out too!

He's clearly no mug and at 5/2 BOG, there seems to be some value in the selection. I know he's up in the weights, but so are his rivals. To that end, I'm backing Roc de Guye at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor, but the price is widely available. The easiest way to see what your preferred bookie is offering is to simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.55 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day Update: 14th to 19th April 2014

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 14/04/14 to 19/04/14

I suggested/hinted last week that our selections had been better than the bare results of late and that the cyclical nature of SotD meant that it was only a matter of time, before we were back amongst the winners, and so it proved.

Last week was excellent with all five runners placed, culminating in three nice winners to close the week out. After Monday's non-runner, we had a 3rd place followed by a runner-up at 10/1, before finally getting off the cold list with winners at 9/2, 7/1 & 9/4 (after a Rule 4 deduction!).

All of which meant that we were able to wipe out all of March's deficit and the losses already incurred this month and still have a little left over! March/April are difficult times to be posting selections, but since the start of March, we are actually in profit (if only just!) to the tune of 0.81pts. I know it's not quite enough to retire on, but we're at least holding on to what we've already made.

Easter Monday is tricky, but we'll have a selection online by mid-morning and normal service will resume on Tuesday.

Selections & Results: 14/04/14 to 19/04/14 

14/04: 5.20 Windsor: Lockedoutaheaven (adv 6/1 E/W BOG) : non-runner
15/04: 3.35 Exeter: Take The Crown (adv 3/1 BOG) : 3rd at 11/8
16/04: 7.55 Sedgefield: Stanley Bridge (adv 9/2 BOG) : 2nd at 10/1
17/04: 2.30 Ripon: Barkston Ash (adv 9/2 BOG) : won at 4/1
18/04: 3.50 Musselburgh: Bilimbi (adv 9/2 BOG) : won at 7/1
19/04: 4.10 Carlisle: Baileys Concerto (adv 9/4 BOG [R4!]) : won at 7/4

14/04 to 19/04:
3 winning bets from 5
P/L: +11.75pts

April:
4 winners from 16 = 25.00% S.R
P/L: +6.25pts
POI = +39.06%

Overall:
228 winners from 805 = 28.32% S.R
P/L: +155.44pts
ROI: +19.31%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +167.44pts from an 806pt outlay = +20.77% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2014

Wow! a 7/1 winner yesterday will certainly have lifted spirits and profit levels yesterday. We've often said that SotD seems to follow a cyclical pattern on the route to long-term success and so this week has proved the case.

We've snapped a long losing run with back to back winners yielding 11.5pts and Friday's runner Bilimbi was a comfortable winner in the end. He's bred to get further than a mile, so he could be one to look out for this season.

I had a couple of family things to deal with this morning (nothing serious), so I'm a little late to press tonight, but hey, it's the Easter Weekend! Let's attempt to land the hat-trick in the...

4.10 Carlisle:

Where I've just taken 5/2 BOG with SkyBet about Dianne Sayer's only runner of the day, Baileys Concerto, who aims to follow up from his win at Hexham 19 days ago. Many people like to back horses when they're a trainers sole runner on the day, but the reasons behind today's pick are...

1. Backing all Dianne Sayer's NH Handicap runners is profitable!

In 2011/14 alone, she has saddled up 69 winners from 503 runners (13.72% Stirke rate) for a profit of some 198.07pts (+39.38% ROI) and when we focus more on the kind of odds we tend to play at for SotD purposes: 40 winners from 148 between evens and 6/1. 40/148 is a 27% strike rate and the resultant 65.94pts propfit is equivalent to 44.55% of stakes. Therefore, we can be confident about long-term profits if we back all her runners.

2. Mrs Sayer also has a good record when she turns her chasers back out quickly after a good run.

Over the last four years, she has sent out 52 handicap chasers to run again within three weeks of a top 4 finish last time out. Fifteen of those horses have gone on to win for a strike rate of 28.85% and the profits returned are excellent at 59.3pt or 97.2% of stakes.

Baileys Concerto won at hexham 14 days ago and therefore not only is he Dianne's only chance of prize money today, he also satisfies both stats and that will do for me!

So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Baileys Concerto at 5/2 BOG with SkyBet and you can see the whole market if you just...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.10 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 18th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th April 2014

Jason Hart gave Barkston Ash the perfect ride yesterday to land a nice 9/2 winner for us.

He hit the front from the start and made all to score by just over a length. He was pressed inside the final furlong by the Fahey-trained favourite, but found more when needed to secure a fairly comfortable victory.

The icing on the cake was the extra half point we grabbed above the 4/1 SP.

We have Good Friday racing for the first time and we're off to the...

3.50 Musselburgh:

And William Haggas' handicap debutant Bilimbi, who despite running from a pound outside the handicap, is currently positioned as the 9/2 BOG favourite for this one.

Bilimbi was last seen 171 days ago when winning a 7f maiden at Yarmouth and steps up to a mile for his first crack in handicap company.

The step up in trip isn't a major issue to me, as over the last six years William Haggas has stepped 100 horses up in trip for their handicap debut and 28 of the 100 (28% SR) have gone on to win, recording level stakes profits of 45.02pts in the process.

If we focus on those runners that have been priced more in line with SotD selections ie 13/8 to 7/1, we get 25 winners from 65 runners, a 38.5% strike rate yielding a massive 56.32pts (+86.65% ROI) profits. Last year alone, these runners were 7/12 for 23.3pts!

I'm also not unduly concerned about the horse's 171 day absence either, as over the same six-year period as above, the record of William Haggas' runners priced below 7/1 returning from a break of over 5 months since a win or a runner-up finish last time out is 11 wins from 35.

I accept that it's not the biggest sample size I've ever quoted, but a 31.4% strike rate shouldn't be dismissed as irrelevant, nor should the 32.3% ROI achieved via the 11.3pts profit either. And as a secondary stat, it supports the main selection well, especially if you consider that the trainer has a 44% strike rate at this track (11 wins from 44) and the resultant 16pts profit is equivalent to 64% of stakes invested.

Bilimbi was impressively progressive last season, despite seeming bred for further than he was asked to travel and the extra furlong will not only suit him, it will probably only be a stepping stone to longer distances in the future.

His opening handicap mark of 80 looks quite lenient and I think he'll give a good account of himself here, hence a 1pt win bet at 9/2 BOG. I've gone with SkyBet, but the same is offer in other places, as you'll see when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2014

SotD's recent dismal run continued on Tuesday as Take The Crown could only manage to finish third despite being heavily backed down to 11/8 from our overnight advisory price of 3/1.

The final margin of defeat was just over five lengths, which probably flattered the leading pair, as I don't think our jockey rode out to the finish, once he realised the game was up. He did enough to hold on to third place and with a driving finish he would have got closer to those ahead of him, but I doubt he'd have improved his placing, so I have no gripes there.

Twilight hurdling in the North East represents out next attempt at getting off the cold list, as I tackle the...

7.55 Sedgefield:

Where I'm backing Barry Murtagh's quadruple course and distance winner Stanley Bridge at 9/2 BOG with Bet365.

On paper, this race actually looks like it's Dalmo's to lose, but the short-priced (Evens at present) favourite carries a seven pound penalty as he attempts to complete a hat-trick inside 10 days. My logic is that this might be too much too soon at too high a weight and also that his price represents little/no value for this one.

Stanley Bridge has won over this course and distance on four of seven attempts with two further places from his three defeats (2131611). The last of those seven runs was his last outing 26 days ago when he beat Ben Cee Pee M by a length and a quarter with that horse going on to win by the same margin next time out (at Market Rasen 10 days ago). Stanley Bridge is up in the weights from 92 to 97, but his penultimate C&D victory was off a mark of 101, so he's more than capable of taking this.

Craig Nichol takes the ride today and his 5lb claim is likely to be very useful here, as trainer Barry Murtagh is very adept with his usage of these claiming jockeys. Since the start of 2011, Mr Murtagh has had 25 runners priced under 12/1 ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs. 10 of the 25 (40% SR) have been returned as winners, netting followers a massive 54.6pts profit in the process, a return equivalent to some 218.4% of stakes invested.

From that excellent 10/25 record, the figures here at Sedgefield are 4 wins from 4 for 24.4pts and from the original 25, today's selection Stanley Bridge is two from two.

Barry Murtagh is also 3/11 with hurdlers who won last time out and although that's a small sample, it's still provides some extra encouragement and I feel we've enough here to justify opposing a short-priced favourite, which is why I'm backing Stanley Bridge to win at 9/2 BOG with Bet365.

No other firm has shown their hand just yet. Mind you, it is only 5.15pm on Tuesday! However, once the others follow suit, the quickest and easiest way to see all the prices in one simple to read clear format, is to...

...click here for the latest betting on the 7.55 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 15th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th April 2014

Lockedoutaheaven was withdrawn on Monday morning leaving us with a no-bet day, so we're hoping to get the week underway somewhat belatedly with a trip to Devon for the...

3.35 Exeter:

And a look at trainer Henry Oliver, who has had an excellent start to his career as a trainer. In fact if you'd put a tenner on each of his 49 handicap hurdlers to have run so far, you'd now be sitting on a tidy profit of £451.60, a 92.2% return on your total investment.

That's because 13 (26.53% SR) of the 49 have been returned as winners at a variety of odds, but to show that the stats aren't entirely skewed by some long-odds winners, we can impose an upper odds limit of 8/1 and still show a decent return.

The record of his handicap hurdlers priced at 8/1 or shorter is currently 12 wins from 32, a strike rate of some 37.5% generating level stakes profits of 29.6pts in the process and a very similar ROI of 92.5%.

Just one runner for Henry on Tuesday, the hat-trick seeking Take The Crown who comes here with the benefit of a three-week break after his back to back wins within four days last month.

He's up 10lbs for those exertions of late, but he's still bottom weight for this one and he's clearly in great nick and looks to have a good chance of landing what looks a fairly mediocre contest here today.

It's a 1pt win bet for me here, taking the 3/1 BOG on offer from betVictor about Take The Crown, but as ever, other bookies are available. So for their prices...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.35 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 14th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th April 2014

It's rare for us to highlight a 10/1 winner on SotD and an even rarer occasion when I'm not entirely ecstatic to have done so, yet both of those events occurred on my first day back "in the chair" on Saturday.

I was torn between two runners both priced at 10/1 for my daily selection, Cubanita had several qualifying stats to support her nomination, yet after a fortnight away in Cuba, I felt it might have looked a little bit contrived to the neutral observer.

Of course, she won and my official pick Severiano ran somewhat below par (sorry!), having failed to get away quick enough to take advantage of an excellent draw.

Many of you backed Cubanita as well (as did I!) and recouped some of the recent losses we've endured, but the official SotD record will show another point dropped. March & April are difficult punting months, but our long-term (c.150pts in 29 months) success fills us with enough confidence to ride out the storm and get back amongst the winners.

This will hopefully start today in the...

5.20 Windsor:

It's a Monday in the Flat Season, so it has to be Windsor, where Marco Botti's sole runner anywhere today is the handicap debutant Lockedoutaheaven.

Windsor has been a happy hunting ground for Signor Botti of late and in the last two years his record here with runners priced at 8/1 or shorter reads 215116212131, that's 6 winners and 4 placers from 12 runners with a level stakes profit of 14.2pts (+118.33% ROI) to boot.

18.5pts profit is the return for E/W bets from those runners and whilst the E/W ROI is lower than the win bets, 77.1% is still a very good return on investment.

Marco Botti is also one of the best trainers at finding races for his horses to win on handicap debut: he has a near 28% strike rate via 38 winners from 136 attempts and these winners have generated profits of 64.3pts or 47.3% of stakes to date.

Lockedoutaheaven comes here on the back of three progressively improving performances in Wolverhampton maidens and was only narrowly beaten (SH) by an 8/13 shot last time out. His opening mark of 70 looks quite fair and his effort will be helped by a 5lb jockey claim which should make him very competitive here today.

6/1 BOG is currently available and I think there's enough juice in that price to take a safety-first E/W approach today, so I'm staking 0.5pts E/W on Lockedoutaheaven at 6/1 BOG with BetVictor for this one.

Bet365 are also offering 6/1 BOG, but for the full market...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day Update, 24/03 to 12/04 inclusive

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 24/03/14 to 12/04/14

March/April are often very difficult months for anyone to consistently pick winners and so it proved for both myself and Matt over the last few weeks.

We were actually pretty pleased/relieved (delete as applicable!) to escape from March with just a 5.44pts deficit and we've lost a similar amount so far this month, but we've plenty of time to correct that.

Racing is built on a series of hard-luck tales and we've had a few of our own over the last three weeks. Matt saw a couple of his selections beaten very narrowly, whilst i returned on Saturday and highlighted two 10/1 chances. One was a winner and one was unplaced. As Sod's Law dictates, we were officially on the wrong one, but plenty of us made a dent into our recent losses with a saver.

The picks haven't been as bad as the results suggest and we're still well in profit after just posting our 800th selection at the weekend. Long-term profit is the plan and now we'll kick on towards the 1,000 bet mark...

Selections & Results: 24/03/14 to 29/03/14 (2/6 : +3.16pts)

24/03: 3.30 Towcester: Cosway Spirit (adv 3.83/1 BOG (R4)) : won at 9/4
25/03: 3.00 Chepstow: Nozic (adv 7/2 BOG) : u/p at 6/1
26/03: 7.30 Kempton: Desert Colours (adv 100/30 BOG) : won at 2/1
27/03: 7.05 Kempton: Cravat (adv 11/4 BOG) : u/p at 15/8
28/03: 4.40 Lingfield: Monumental Man (adv 10/1 E/W BOG) : u/p at 5/1
29/03: 2.40 Doncaster: Jack Dexter (adv 9/4 BOG) : 3rd at 13/8

Selections & Results: 31/03/14 to 05/04/14 (1/6 : -0.5pts)

31/03: 3.10 Hexham: Dingo Bay (adv 5/1 BOG) : fell at 4/1
01/04: 3.00 Southwell: Pull The Pin (adv 5/1 BOG) : 2nd at 5/1
02/04: 4.40 Leopardstown: Light Heavy (adv 8/1 E/W BOG) : u/p at 7/1
03/04: 3.55 Taunton: Dunraven Storm (adv 9/2 BOG) : won at 4/1
04/04: 6.45 Dundalk: Strategic Heights (adv 9/2 BOG) : 2nd at 15/8
05/04: 4.45 Lingfield: Forceful Appeal (adv 15/2 E/W BOG) : u/p at 10/1

Selections & Results: 07/04/14 to 12/04/14 (0/6 : -6.0pts)

07/04: 4.30 Kelso: Or De Grugy (adv 100/30 BOG) : PU at 3/1
08/04: 3.30 Southwell: Honoured (adv 4/1 BOG) : u/p at 3/1
09/04: 6.00 Kempton: Invasor Luck (adv 9/2 BOG) : u/p at 11/2
10/04: 4.10 Towcester: Floral Spinner (adv 20/1 non-BOG) : u/p at 16/1
11/04: 7.05 Wolverhampton: Final Delivery (adv 9/4 BOG) : 3rd at 6/4
12/04: 2.15 Thirsk: Severiano (adv 10/1 E/W BOG) : u/p at 8/1

24/03 to 12/04:
3 winning bets from 18
P/L: -3.34pts

March:
4 winners from 25 = 16.00% S.R
P/L: -5.44pts
POI = -21.76%

April:
1 winners from 11 = 9.09% S.R
P/L: -5.50pts
POI = -50.00%

Overall:
225 winners from 800 = 28.13% S.R
P/L: +143.69pts
ROI: +17.96%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +155.69pts from an 801pt outlay = +19.44% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.

Stat of the Day, 27th March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th March 2014

A nice bookie bashing win at Kempton on Wednesday evening, as our 100/30 shot Desert Colours returned as a 2/1 winning favourite. He led in the early stages but was headed around halfway before battling back to regain the lead and running on to score by a length and a quarter to complete a quick fire hat-trick.

More Class 6 A/W handicap action from Sunbury for Thursday evening's...

7.05 Kempton:

Where I expect Cravat to repeat his win over this one mile trip, as he did five days ago at Lingfield. He stayed on well under a drive from Andrea Atzeni to win by a length on Friday and has a great chance here too.

He's up 6lbs in weight for this 4yo+ handicap, which now makes him the top weight for this contest, but the bulk of that penalty is offset by the booking of talented claimer Eoin Walsh, who will take 5lbs off here.

I'm happy to see Eoin on board this horse, as he has a fantastic record here at Kempton, winning five times from ten starts on horses priced under 8/1 ie SotD territory. It's a small sample size, admittedly, but a 50% strike rate returning 19.9pts (+199% ROI) profit cannot be ignored and is a positive for me.

I'm also not concerned about Cravat bearing top weight, because (and bear with me, this is quite long 😀 ), if we consider horses fitting the following profile:
Male horses who were top weight in UK A/W 4yo+ Handicaps at Class 5 to 7 over a trip of a mile and beyond and priced at 6/1 or under running within 10 days of a win last time out or who finished second within a length of the winner went on to win 44 of 116 races. Phew! And now breathe.

This 44/116 is a strike rate of some 37.9% and has generated level stakes profits of 48pts or 41.4% of stakes invested and from this we have a record of 14/24 (58.3% SR) for 29.3pts (+122% ROI) here at Kempton.

Those top weight numbers added to the excellent record of an up and coming jockey are enough for me to be confident about a 1pt win bet on Cravat. I'm on at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, whilst 5/2 seems to be the best elsewhere. For all the prices available...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.05 Kempton:

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today's racecard!