Category Archives: Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2020

New Year's Eve's pick was...

3.20 Lingfield : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer)

New Year's Day's pick runs in the...

12.15 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redford Road @ 3/1 and Betfair SP

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Ballymore Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £14,238 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was a Grade 2 winner here at Cheltenham on his last start 18 days ago and although he now takes a drop in trip, he has won at 2m4f over hurdles in the past. In fact he's never been out of the first two home in five starts, winning three times and never beaten by more than a length, including...

  • 3 from 3 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a second from 3 over hurdles (all Novice events)
  • 2 from 2 under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • a win and a second from 2 on Soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Cheltenham

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers who won last time out are 31 from 99 (31.3% SR) for 17.1pts (+17.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of Evens to 13/2 over the past four years, including of relevance today...

  • 31/97 (32%) for 19.1pts (+19.7%) with males
  • 25/67 (37.3%) for 30.2pts (+45.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 11/19 (57.9%) for 22.4pts (+117.7%) over trips of 2m3½f to 2m4½f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 1.5pts (+5%) on soft ground
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.4pts (+12.4%) here at HQ
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%) in January
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 10.6pts (+265%) from those dropping in trip by 4-5 furlongs

...whilst from the above...5-6 yr old males racing over 2m3½f to 2m4½f are 9/15 (60% SR) for 21.53pts (+143.5% ROI) including 4/7 on soft, 2/2 in Jan, 2/2 dropping 4-5f and 1/1 at Chelts...

...giving us...0.5pts at Betfair SP and a 0.5pt win bet on Redford Road @ 3/1 as was available from Paddy Power & Betfair at 6.40pm on New Year's Eve. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2019

Monday's pick was...

12.25 Haydock : Longhousesignora @ 4/1 9th at 15/2 (Prominent until 2nd, chased leaders, lost place before 4th, closed after 6th, ridden next, weakened after 8th)

New Year's Eve's pick runs in the...

3.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back course and distance wins on this track in the last month, both at this grade under today's jockey and beating six of today's ten rivals in the process.

Jockey Hector Crouch is in decent touch right now (generally a useful pointer with these lower grade horses who tend to bet each other on a cyclical basis) having clocked up 5 winners from 25 (20% SR) for 3.11pts (+12.4% ROI) over the last three weeks of racing, from which he is...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.11pts (+134.3%) at 8/1 or shorter
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.11pts (+212.3%) at Class 6
  • 4/16 (25%) for 10.16pts (+63.5%) at Lingfield
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 12.37pts (+112.5%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 19.37pts (+484.25%) at 8/1 or shorter in Lingfield Class 6 handicaps.

Trainer John E Long doesn't have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but the numbers say he's having a fair old time of it these last two years. He might have only sent 61 runners out in the last 24 months, but 13 winners (21.3% SR) and 180.9pts (+296.5% ROI) profit suggest he might be one to keep an eye on, especially under conditions like today, as those 61 runners are...

  • 13/52 (25%) for 189.9pts (+365.2%) in races worth less than £4600 to the winner
  • 13/51 (25.5%) for 190.9pts (+374.3%) in handicaps
  • 13/47 (27.7%) for 194.9pts (+414.7%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 188pts (+400%) over 6 to 10 furlongs
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 164pts (+455.7%) within 45 days of their last run
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 119pts (+297.5%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 147.7pts (+351.7%) within 60 miles of base
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 136pts (+388.5%) on the A/W (all on Poly)
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 99.7pts (+311.5%) at Class 6
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 144.3pts (+655.9%) from September to January
  • 6/15 (40%) for 60.5pts (+403.1%) at 6 furlongs
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13.3pts (+110.7%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 9pts (+82.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 15pts (+186.9%) with Hector Crouch in the saddle

Obviously you can combine the above details into a composite angle, but with each added filter you do dilute the sample size.

If you took the first 7 of those 14 angles above, then 4/5 yr olds having travelled less than 60 miles from home to run in 8-13 runner handicaps over 6-1o furlongs worth less than £4600 within 45 days of their last run are 8 from 14 (57.1% SR) for 92.8pts (+663% ROI), including 6 from 9 at Class 6, 5 from 9 on A/W (all Poly), 5 from 6 from September to December and 4 from 7 over 6f and so on...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 12.30am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.10 Wolverhampton : Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Went right start, soon tracked leader, led narrowly over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on soft ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is 4 from 9 so far and got off the mark (at just the second time of asking) over fences last time out when winning by a mere 21 lengths eighteen days ago. That was over 2m4f on heavy ground at Uttoxeter and whilst this is 3f further for his handicap debut, the ground will ride slightly easier today, plus he has stayed 3m over hurdles on soft ground, whilst Richard Johnson retains the ride today.

Our race card icons (C5) suggest that both the aforementioned jockey and the trainer, Philip Hobbs have decent records on this track, so I'll take that as read and whilst keeping today's explanation fairly simple, I'll explore two other angles briefly for you.

Firstly, people of a certain age might remember "...it's Friday, it's five to five, it's Crackerjack...". Well along those lines: "...it's Saturday, it's a handicap and it's Hobbs & Johnson!"

Basically, this trainer/jockey combo are 46 from 288 (16% SR) for 16.4pts (+5.7% ROI) backed blindly in handicaps on Saturdays over the last six years. A good strike rate that's blindly profitable is always a decent starting point for a way in and of interest from those 288 runners, we have...

  • 44/242 (18.2%) for 27.1pts (+11.2%) at odds of Evens to 10/1
  • 30/170 (17.7%) for 32.3pts (+19%) over fences
  • 24/105 (22.9%) for 58.4pts (+55.6%) from November to January
  • and 15/68 (22.1%) for 12.7pts (+18.6%) at Class 3...

...whilst chasers sent off at Evens to 10/1 during November to January are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 66.2pts (+124.9% ROI), including 5/14 935.7%) for 19.6pts (+139.8%) at Class 3.

Secondly, as our pick is making a handicap bow, it's worth noting that Philip Hobbs is having a good year with such runners, as his handicap debutants are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 14.56pts (+72.8% ROI) in 2019 and these include...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.6pts (+61.5%) from LTO winners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in fields of 10-13 runners
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 16.5pts (+235.5%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle...

...whilst 6 yr old LTO winners in fields of 10-13 runners are 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 6.3pts (+210% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 4.50pm on Friday, although I'm on with Hills (non-BOG until raceday) at 4/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2019

Boxing Day's pick was...

1.20 Kempton : Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Raced keenly, led until fell 10th)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, All Weather Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Simon Crisford's three-year-old handicap debutant was a winner on his most recent start.

Let's break that down:

Crisford with handicap debutants is 16 from 62, 14 further places (25.8%, A/E 1.15, IV 2.59) in the last two years

With handicap debutants at Wolverhampton, he is 4 from 9, three further places (44.44%, +14.63, A/E 2.09, IV 4.29)

His overall Wolver handicap record in the last five years is an impressive 14 from 45, 13 further places (31.11%, +26.08, A/E 1.3, IV 3.01)

With last time out winners, Crisford is 28 from 109 in the last two years (22 further places). That's 25.69% winners, +1.27, A/E 1.00, IV 1.34.

Classic Design is a son of Pivotal, whose progeny perform well on the all-weather:

In the last two years, they are 54 from 355 (78 further places), for +7.76 (A/E 1.01, IV 1.47), with three-year-olds winning at about 20%.

And, if you don't mind mashing these things together, Pivotal progeny aged three in Wolverhampton handicaps are 11 from 38 (5 further places, +34.78, A/E 1.68, IV 2.77)

Classic Design does have a tricky draw in stall 11, but he was a facile winner last time and has plenty statistically in his favour...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.15pm on Boxing Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Newcastle : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, close up on inside when fell 5 out)

Boxing Day's pick runs in the...

1.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding was a winner LTO, 8 days ago, triumphant on similarly soft ground at Ludlow in another Class 3 handicap chase under today's jockey, Charlie Deutsch.

He's by Walk In The Park, whose soft ground handicap chasers are 6 from 19 (31.6%) SR) for 26.4pts (+138.9% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • 6/15 (40%) for 30.4pts (+202.6%) at 2m1.5f to 3m2f
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 32.4pts (+249.1%) at 2/1 to 10/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.05pts (+72.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 8.05pts (+201.3%) when all three of the above are in play as they are today.

This horse hails from the in-form Venetia Williams yard, one that thrives at this time of year and does well in poorer conditions. In fact, Venetia's runners are 13 from 26 (50% SR) for 31.6pts (+121.6% ROI) since the morning of the 11th December, whilst more generally over the last five Decembers, her Class 2 to 4 handicappers are 41/160 (25.6% SR) for 101.9pts (+63.7% ROI), including...

  • 38/141 (27%) for 108.9pts (+77.3%) from male runners
  • 35/102 (34.3%) for 121.7pts (+119.3%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 34/120 (28.3%) for 103.9pts (+86.6%) in races worth £4k to £17k to the winner
  • 28/85 (32.9%) for 108.7pts (+127.9%) over 2m3f to 2m7.5f
  • 28/71 (39.4%) for 62.2pts (+87.6%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.4pts (+74.5%) on Soft ground
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 25.1pts (+41.9%) under Charlie Deutsch
  • and 16/73 (21.9%) for 38.9pts (+53.3%) at Class 3...

...whilst 4-7 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 over 2m3f to 2m7.5f chasing pots of £4 to 17k are 14/22 (63.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+203.6% ROI) and these include 8/13 (61.5%) for Charlie Deutsch, 7/13 (53.9%) at Class 3, 7/10 (70%) on soft ground and 3 from 4 (75%) with Charlie riding a Class 3 runner on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.50pm on Christmas Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th December 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Wolverhampton : Elzaam's Dream @ 9/2 3rd at 3/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, nearest finish : basically a slow start, picked up and ran on, but got going a bit too late!)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W Handicap for 3yo= over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is in really good nick right now, placed in each of her last three outings (all under today's jockey, 5lb claimer, Faye McManoman), including winning her last two starts, firstly over 6f on this track in early November and then again 18 days later/25 days ago over this 7f trip at Chelmsford.

It seems to have taken a while for the penny to drop with this filly, but she's now flying and conditions look ideal today, as from her overall 2 from 13 record, she is...

  • 2/10 on the A/W and 2/10 as a 3 yr old
  • 2/8 over 6/7 furlongs
  • 2/7 at Class 6, 2/7 after 1-4 weeks rest, 2/7 in fields of 12-14 runners and 2/7 going left handed
  • 2/5 under jockey Faye McManoman

...and when all eight of the above are aligned as they are today, she is 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 25.28pts (+1264% ROI) at Betfair SP.

Trainer Charles Smith's LTO winners are 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.43pts (+377.6% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter in handicaps over the last five years, including 3 from 5 (60%) for 28.43pts (+568.6%) in larger (ie 10-14 runners) fields.

Those LTO stats are clearly from a small sample size, because Charles is hardly prolific with just 14 winners from 271 (5.17% SR) for a loss of 70.87pts (-26.2% ROI) backed blindly over that same 5 yr period, so why/how is he still in business and why have I picked one of his horses?

Well, like most "run of the mill" (no disrespect intended) trainers, Charles has an area/niche where he does far better than his average would suggest and in Charles' case, it seems to be Class 5/6, A/W handicaps here at Southwell over 7-8 furlongs. Such runners win more than twice as often as Charles's average SR and produce a healthy profit from blind backing.

Numerically, we're talking 10 winners from 89 (11.24% SR), so that's 71.4% of all the yard's winners over the last 5 years from just 32.8% of the runners and backing each of them to a £10 stake would have netted £768.10 at an ROI of some 86.3%! A simple further refinement of this angle would be to just back those ridden by a jockey with a weight claim, which eradicates almost half of the 89 bets, but only removes 1 winner!

...as Charles Smith + C5/6 + Southwell A/W hcps + 7-8f + 3-7lb jockey claim = 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 112.85pts (+250.8% ROI) over the last 5 yrs at an A/E of some 2.65...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Betfred at 5.05pm on Thursday, although the latter are non-BOG until raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

2.05 Ludlow : Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Chased winner, led briefly 5th, lost 2nd before 4 out, soon weakened and last home, 33 lengths off the pace!)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly was a runner-up over course and distance when last seen 17 days ago. She was partnered by today's jockey, David Probert, for the first time that day and was only beaten by a neck. She was, however, a little more than two lengths clear of Seraphim back in fourth place, who herself has since reappeared here last Saturday as a winner.

After making a mess of the original post last night, I'm going to keep the stats pretty simple today with a look at he trainer's record at this venue in recent years, as...

...Ron Harris' runners are 19 from 149 (12.75% SR) for 132.04pts (+88.6% ROI) backed blindly in Class 4-6 handicaps here since the start of 2016. These are good numbers for non-top level yard, but I should point out that the profit and ROI are both skewed by a couple of 16/1 winners and a 33/1 success that paid out at 101/1 on the Betfair SP.

I rarely back horses at double digit odds and I certainly don't advocate backing 33/1 shots at Wolverhampton too often, so let's focus on those of the original 149 runners who were sent off shorter than 10/1, shall we?

Yes, Chris, let's do that, I almost hear you shout and you'd be right to, because those runners are a more realistic 14 from 59 (23.7% SR) for 44.4pts (+75.3% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 13.79pts (+35.4%) at Class 6
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 30.88pts (+128.7%) with jockey David Probert
  • 6/15 (40%) for 39.76pts (+265.1%) during December to February
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.71pts (+104.5%) with female runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.98pts (+87.4%) with David Probert at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.05%) for 3.35pts (+17.65%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 4/16 (25%) for 7.06pts (+44.1%) this year alone...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by the first to show, Hills at 4.45pm on Wednesday. They were still best priced of all at 6.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.55 Catterick : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Led until slow 5th, soon ridden, led 8th, headed before 3 out, one pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2,05 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on soft ground worth £16,458 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we're with the Skeltons today and their 6 yr old gelding who was won 7 of his last 10 outings and is 9 from 20 in his entire career, including 3 from 5 over fences and...

  • 8 from 16 with Harry in the saddle
  • 8 from 10 in fields of 3-8 runners
  • 7 from 16 over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • and 7 from 13 at 11-35 days since last run.

He has won on soft ground and also over course and distance and in fact won on soft over C&D last time out, when comfortably clear by nine lengths! And referring back to the above numbers, he is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 3.62pts (+60.4% ROI) when Harry rides him in fields of 3-8 runners over trips shorter than 2m1f at 11-35 dslr.

Both Harry and trainer Dan have good records here at Ludlow, but (a) that's fairly common knowledge and (b) it's actually highlighted on your race card via the green C1 and C5 icons, so I won't go there today.

Instead I'm going to focus on the fact that since 2014, Dan's former C&D winners sent off within 45 days of an LTO win anywhere are 19 from 41 (46.3% SR) for 11.23pts (+27.4% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which, they are...

  • 19/38 (50%) for 14.23pts (+37.5%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 18/34 (52.9%) for 17.08pts (+50.2%) who won over C&D LTO
  • 16/28 (57.1%) for 10.75pts (+38.4%) since the start of 2017
  • 16/26 (61.5%) for 21.01pts (+80.8%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 11/25 (44%) for 10.67pts (+42.7%) in handicaps
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 7.9pts (+56.4%) over fences
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 2.46pts (+22.4%) stepping up a class
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.61pts (+108.7%) on soft ground...

...whilst when Harry has ridden the 5-7 yr old LTO C&D winners from above since the start of 2017, they are 13/16 (81.25% SR) for 17.53pts (+109.6% ROI) and these include 8 from 10 in handicaps, 8 from 8 over fences, 4 from 5 stepping up a class, 4 from 4 in handicap chases and 2 from 2 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 5.25pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!